An investment business plan for an enterprise example. Examples of calculation of investment projects. Investment projects and business plan: main features

An investment business plan is a tool designed to attract investment; documented in the same way as a regular business plan. However, there are significant differences between the two documents. The investment business plan is focused on the external environment, while the usual one is drawn up for internal use.

A well-written business plan for an investment project allows a prospective investor to evaluate the attractiveness and profitability of the proposal. In addition, it allows you to make sure that the project can be successfully implemented and is worth the investment.

Drawing up a business plan for an investment project provides an opportunity to solve a number of such tasks:

• · Justify from an economic point of view the effectiveness of the direction of the company's development.
• · Calculate expected sales volumes, financial income and profits from ongoing activities.
• · To define methods of concentration of the finance.
• · To select professional employees who will be able to implement the project.

As a feature of the business plan of an investment project, there is the possibility of accounting for both the internal and external environment where the business idea is implemented. It is with the help of this document that you can find the funds necessary for the development of the company.

The development of a business plan for an investment project makes it possible to calculate the predicted indicators of the financial profitability of the project and assess the approximate payback period for invested funds. This requires analyzing a significant amount of information, since a business plan is the result of a detailed study of all aspects of commercial and industrial activity.

The business plan of the investment project is developed to justify the current and long-term planning of the development of the enterprise, the development (selection) of new types of activities; substantiation of the possibility of obtaining investment and credit resources, as well as the return of borrowed funds; substantiation of proposals for the creation of joint and foreign enterprises; expediency of providing state support measures.

Formation of a business plan involves the passage of several stages.

First of all, it is necessary to collect a set of supporting information, having previously identified its sources, of which there are quite a lot today, in particular, materials from government agencies; data from management consulting firms and other similar organizations; various industry publications; methodical and other materials.

The initial stage of work on the business plan is the definition of the mission of the enterprise, the formation of the goals and objectives of the project, for which the problems and prospects for the development of the enterprise serve as guidelines.

The next step is to determine the specific recipients to whom the draft business plan will be sent (future shareholders, commercial banks, venture capital firms).

The next element is the definition of the general structure of the generated document.

At the next stage, information is collected for the preparation of all individual sections of the business plan. At the same time, it is necessary to use the information resource of both employees of the organization who know the internal environment well, and external consultants, primarily in the areas of financial forecasting and market research, as well as management consultants.

And, finally, this process is completed by drawing up the business plan itself (the planning process).

Based on the target function of the business plan, the concept of the business plan is formed, its logical development, the ideology of construction, corresponding to a certain type of business plan.

It should be noted that the volume, structure, specific content, the degree of detail of individual sections of the business plan is dictated by the goals set in it, its temporal and spatial scale. Thus, the business plan does not have strict regulation either in terms of the amount of information or the structure of the document.

However, regardless of the type of business plan, it is recommended that it contain the following information (main sections):

• · "Summary";
• · "Characteristics of the enterprise and strategy of its development";
• · "Description of products (services)";
• · "Analysis of sales markets. Marketing strategy";
• · "Production plan";
• · "Organizational plan";
• · "Project Implementation Plan";
• · "Investment plan";
• · "Forecasting of financial and economic activity";
• · "Project performance indicators";
• · "Legal plan";
• · "Information about the developer of the business plan".

The development of these sections is the process of directly creating a business plan.

The summary reflects the main idea of ​​the project and summarizes the main conclusions and results of the sections of the business plan. His task is to state the essence of the business plan in a concise and accessible form.

In the "Characteristics of the enterprise and its development strategy" section, a description of the industry and characteristics of the enterprise, its role and place in the industry hierarchy and the national economy as a whole are given, the passport of the enterprise is filled in.

When describing the enterprise, the following questions are reflected: history of creation; the main achievements and failures in the activities of the enterprise; weak and strong points in production and economic activity, its features; characteristics of the existing fixed production assets and technologies; loading of production capacities; manufactured products; the main indicators of the financial and economic activity of the enterprise for the previous period.

The section "Description of products (services)" provides information about the products that the enterprise will produce: scope; Main characteristics; compliance with quality standards, etc.

It also provides an action plan to improve products in order to increase its competitiveness.

The section "Analysis of sales markets. Marketing strategy" outlines the key points of substantiating sales volumes of products based on the analysis of sales markets and the development of a marketing strategy.

The production plan is developed for the duration of the project (calculation horizon). This section should include the following subsections:

• · Program of production and sale of products;
• · Production facilities (buildings, structures, technologies, equipment);
• · Logistics support;
• Cost (costs) of production and marketing of products.

It should be noted that the program of production and sale of products is compiled on the basis of marketing research.

In the "Organizational plan" section, in accordance with the main stages of the project implementation, a comprehensive justification of organizational measures and activities is given. The central place is given to the substantiation of the organizational structure of the enterprise and the choice of a rational system for managing production, personnel, supply, marketing and the enterprise as a whole. At the same time, the capabilities of the project initiators for the selection and training of personnel, the ability of the management team to implement this project are indicated, the necessary qualifications and number of specialists are determined, the introduction of multiple shifts in work is justified, etc.

The calendar schedule for the project implementation is a plan of coordinated activities in time, starting from the adoption of an investment decision and preparatory work to industrial production and repayment of debts to borrowers. It is recommended to develop it in the form of a time diagram or a network diagram. During the development of the project, alternative options the project implementation schedule and the best of them is accepted for work, taking into account the optimal combination of financial and time criteria. When developing this schedule, a list of works and the need for financial resources for the implementation of each are indicated.

Further the section "Investment plan" is developed. Investment costs are defined as the sum of fixed capital (capital costs) and net working capital. At the same time, the fixed capital represents the resources required for the construction and equipment of the enterprise, and the net working capital corresponds to the resources necessary for its full or partial operation. This section provides a calculation of the need for investment for each type of cost.

The section "Forecasting financial and economic activity" is also important. The main tables for forecasting the financial and economic activities of production (enterprise) include:

• · Calculation of net profit from sales of products;
• · Cash flow calculation;
• · Design and balance sheet.

Project performance indicators are provided in the Project Performance Indicators section. The investment appraisal is based on a comparison of the expected net profit from the project implementation with the capital invested in the project. The method is based on the calculation of net cash flow, defined as the difference between cash inflow from operating (production) and investment activities and their outflow, as well as minus financing costs (interest on long-term loans).

Based on the net cash flow, the main indicators for evaluating investments are calculated: net present value (NPV); yield index (ID); internal rate of return (IRR); payback period.

The section "Information about the developer of the business plan" provides a general description and characteristics of the organizations involved in the development of the business plan. Data on the creation, functioning and development of organizations involved in the development of a business plan are given.

Thus, a business plan is a target program document, which is a system of calculations, feasibility studies, a set of economic indicators, a description of measures and actions dedicated to the implementation of the main goal of entrepreneurial activity - to maximize profit from it.

The formation of a business plan involves the passage of several stages: defining the mission of the enterprise; formation of the goal and objectives of the project; establishing the overall structure of the business plan; collection of necessary information; drawing up a business plan (planning process).

We also note that when developing a business plan, it is necessary to follow the fundamental principles of planning (accuracy and detail, consistency, flexibility, optimality, etc.) so that the resulting business plan can provide convincing answers to the main questions in the field of implementation investment project.

The development of an investment business plan should be trusted exclusively to professionals, since quite often projects are rejected by promising investors even at the stage of considering a resume. Therefore, the submitted document should correctly and briefly indicate all the significant points of the project in order to arouse interest among the investor and show that future investments can be very profitable.

The resume contains no more than 3 pages. Here you must specify the following information:

• · General information about the company.
• · Products and services offered.
• · Markets to which the activity is oriented.
• · Employees working in the represented company.
• · Financial success for the last 3 years.
• · Capital structure.
• · Anticipated future development of the company.
• · Forecast of financial development for the next 2 years.
• · Existing risks.
• The need for financial resources.

All information provided must be brief, convincing, reliable and without unnecessary details. Additional information can be issued in the form of a separate document; it can be attributed to:

• · Description of the company's services or technical description of products.
• · Resumes of employees who are in leadership positions.
• · Information about the production process.
• · Important reporting documentation and expert opinions.

Drawing up a business plan for an investment project should be carried out in such a way that it is focused on the expectations of the investor, therefore, when developing, it is necessary to determine the following information:

• · What information and figures the investor wants to see.
• · How can information about the project be presented in the best possible way.
• · What objections and questions may arise from the investor. How to warn them.

An important point is to determine, first of all, for yourself, what kind of investor you want to attract. The latter can be the state, a commercial bank, or a person who has the necessary funds for investment. It should be noted that when contacting a private investor and signing an agreement with him, a direct investor, as a rule, receives the right to temporary management and control of the company in which his funds were invested.

The bank, as an investor, provides the company with a loan at a certain percentage, while the financial institution is interested not so much in the future development of the project itself, but in the return on investment. Therefore, when choosing a bank as a depositor in a business plan, it is necessary to show the prospects of the project and the possibility that it will bring enough finance to pay off the loan. In addition, it is important to show the presence of property provided as collateral. It will act as a guarantee that the bank will receive the funds previously provided to them if the project suddenly fails.

The state often acts as an investor. Investments in this case can be expressed in the form of grants. To attract such an investor, the following information must be indicated in the documents provided:

• · Availability of own financial resources of the company.
• The number of employees and their salaries.
• · Tax revenues.

From the foregoing, it follows that the investment business plan is focused mainly on a specific investor; must demonstrate to the latter all the attractiveness, efficiency and profitability of the proposal, therefore, the preparation of this document should be approached with all responsibility and professionalism.

Investment business plan. Development and execution of an investment business plan

It is an integral part of business planning as a continuous process of organization development. An investment business plan or project is a documented manifestation of an investment initiative of an economic entity, which provides for the investment of capital in a specific object of real investment, aimed at the implementation of certain investment goals determined in time and obtaining planned specific results.

In this case, the main source of capital is an external investor who is unfamiliar with the enterprise or the proposed investment idea and requires a high level of detail of the issues of interest to him.

The investment business plan is used for lending needs and is submitted to the bank for consideration by the credit committee as confirmation of the economic feasibility of the project,
issued by professional consultants.

An investment (or credit) business plan in itself is not a guarantee of obtaining borrowed funds, since the bank still credits the project, and not the document describing it. In such a business plan, issues of interest to the bank are disclosed in detail: a financial plan, a qualitative analysis of risks, a calculation of the project's profitability, and its integral indicators. Currently, no bank will accept a project for consideration if a business plan that meets the standards adopted in Russian credit institutions is not attached to the borrower's package of documents.

The need to develop an investment business plan by Russian enterprises was caused by a number of reasons:

■ adaptation of foreign experience in the development of investment projects to domestic conditions. This determined the mandatory typing of the methodology and documentation used in the business area;

■ the use of personal computers, which determined the need and possibility of creating software for the development and analysis of investment projects. Commercial and standard functional programs, as well as programs prepared by the project developers themselves, are used in many calculations;

■ evaluation of the business plan by the owners of financial resources or their borrowers and lenders in terms of return on investment and profit or other positive effect.

The business plan evaluates the prospective situation both inside and outside of it. It is the most compact document that allows the entrepreneur not only to make an informed decision, but also to indicate what and when should be done in order to meet the expectations regarding the effectiveness of the project. The approval and viability of the project depends on the correctness of the document. A business plan answers the questions: is the idea really that good; Who is the target audience for the new product/service? will this product (service) find a buyer; who will you have to compete with?

For medium-term and long-term projects, the development of business plans is a central stage in investment planning. Its main content is the formation of the main components of the project and its preparation for implementation. The main content of this stage includes the following types of work:

■ development of the concept and further development of the main content of the project (resources - limitations - result);

■ establishing business contacts and in-depth study of the participants' goals;

■ structural planning;

■ organization and conduct of tenders, conclusion of contracts with key contractors;

■ Obtaining approval to continue work.

For short-term small-scale or local projects that do not require significant costs and very short implementation periods, the business plan combines all the stages and work performed in the pre-investment phase.

To develop a development strategy for a large enterprise, a corporate (global) business plan is drawn up.

When developing a business plan, you must first decide: what is the purpose of developing a business plan. These goals may be:

■ to understand for themselves the degree of reality of achieving the indicated results in the completed project or technical condition;

■ convince colleagues of the reality of achieving certain qualitative or quantitative indicators of the proposed project;

■ prepare public opinion for corporatization of the enterprise according to the proposed scheme, which the authors consider optimal;

■ prove to a certain circle of people the expediency of restructuring work and reorganizing an existing or creating a new enterprise;

■ attract attention and increase the interest of a potential investor.

Enterprises operating in a stable situation and producing a product for a sufficiently stable market develop a business plan aimed at improving production and finding ways to reduce costs. These enterprises constantly provide for measures to modernize their products and draw them up in the form of local business plans.

Venture capital firms that manufacture high-risk products systematically work on business plans for the development of new types of products, the transition to technologies, and the so-called.

If an enterprise, having outlined a significant increase in the production of traditional products or the development of new technology, does not have sufficient capacities for their production, then it can go by attracting capital investments or searching for new partners.

In this case, the business plan is used when looking for investors, creditors, sponsorship investments. For this, a one- or two-page business plan summary can be prepared, allowing investors, lenders and other partners to see important features and benefits of the project. This document is called a business proposal. It is used in negotiations with potential investors and future partners.

Drawing up an investment business plan

The business plan must be presented in a form that allows the interested person to get a clear idea of ​​the essence of the case and the degree of interest in his participation in it. The volume and degree of specification of the sections of the plan are determined by the specifics and scope of the enterprise. It should be written simply and clearly and have a clear structure, such as the one recommended by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development:

1. Introduction.

2. Overview of the state of the industry (production) to which the enterprise belongs.

3. Description of the project.

4. Production plan for the implementation of the project.

5. Plan for marketing and sales of products.

6. Organizational plan for the implementation of the project.

7. Financial plan for the implementation of the project.

8. Evaluation of the economic efficiency of costs incurred during the implementation of the project.

Let's take a closer look at the contents of each section. The introductory part of the business plan includes:

■ title page;

■ summary;

■ confidentiality memorandum.

On the title page the name of the enterprise - the initiator of the project, the name of the project, the place and time of its development are placed.

The summary is a summary of the essence of the investment project. This is a document that reveals all the attractiveness and the need for the implementation of a particular goal. It should be short and arouse the interest of the reader. The summary is compiled last, as it summarizes all the information contained in the project. The summary provides data that should allow a potential investor to understand what is at stake, what is the estimated cost and profitability of the project.

The confidentiality memorandum is drawn up in order to warn those who get acquainted with the business plan of the confidentiality of the information contained therein. The memorandum may contain a reminder that the reader assumes responsibility and guarantees non-disclosure of the information contained in the plan without the prior consent of the author. The memorandum may contain requests for the return of the business plan and a prohibition on copying the material.

Development of an investment business plan

Now let's proceed directly to the development of an investment business plan, it should begin with an overview of the state of the industry (production) to which the enterprise belongs, designed to solve two main tasks:

1) study the state and development trends of the industry as an investment object;

2) to carry out a forecast of the volume of production of products and services that an enterprise can produce in a competitive environment.

To solve the first task in the business plan, it is advisable to give a retrospective analysis of the current state of affairs in the industry, the development of the industry over the previous 5-10 years, describe possible trends in the development of the industry as a whole, relevant industries in the regions where it is planned to sell products abroad.

To solve the second problem, it is necessary to describe the main competitors in the regional, domestic and foreign markets but the following positions:

■ product range and sales;

■ the markets in which they operate and their shares in those markets;

■ competitiveness of their products;

■ pricing policy and sales policy;

■ state of the production base.

The analysis of these data will allow you to determine the competitive advantages of your company or identify its shortcomings, determine the methods of competition with competing enterprises. The results of the analysis will be one of the criteria on the basis of which a potential investor will be able to judge the company's ability to compete successfully with similar companies.

The description of the project is to briefly and clearly state the essence and main provisions of the project. This section covers the following topics:

■ what the enterprise does or will do (data on the size and prospects of the enterprise, profile of activity, features of the goods and services produced, and other information providing the competitive advantages of this enterprise are provided);

■ what is the expected demand for the expected goods and services, the forecast of their implementation for several years (here are the main trends in the market development, weaknesses of competing enterprises, plans for growth and expansion of activities);

■ the amount of income from the sale of products or the provision of services, the amount of costs and gross profit, the level of profitability, the payback period of investments (in this part of the business plan, the economics of the enterprise should be presented: data but profit, expected profitability, return on invested capital, break-even and excess of cash receipts over payments);

■ how much money should be invested in the project for its implementation (briefly indicate the amount of necessary financing and directions for the use of capital);

■ why the enterprise will be successful in quickly penetrating new markets for goods and services (this section indicates the competitive advantages of the enterprise in this period and possible advantages after the implementation of the proposed project, weaknesses of competitors and other conditions).

In terms of production information is provided on the security of the investment project from the production and technological side. In the production plan, you need to do the following:

■ state the goals of the enterprise's long-term strategy;

■ describe the structure of the planned production, its raw material base and technological scheme production process, sources of energy, heat, water supply;

■ provide data on the staffing of production, the program of training and retraining of personnel;

■ describe the plan for bringing the enterprise to full design capacity;

■ provide information on the status of work on the project and the possibilities of production.

To characterize the status of work on the project, you must specify the following data:

■ the degree of development of the products intended for production;

■ legal support project;

■ work performed according to the project;

■ availability of production facilities;

■ the need to purchase equipment;

■ name of suppliers, terms of delivery and cost of equipment;

■ types of energy sources;

■ description of the raw material base;

■ characteristics of the production infrastructure (including internal and external transport);

■ the environmental situation in terms of discharges into the water basin and emissions into the air.

Marketing and sales plan is one of the most significant and complex in a business plan. The results of market research are the basis for the development of a long-term marketing and pricing strategy for an enterprise, its current policy. They determine the needs for human and material resources.

In view of the importance and complexity of this section, it is advisable to prepare it in the first place and at the same time to check the data on the market, its volumes and growth rates from additional, alternative sources.

Market research in the business plan includes three blocks:

1. Analysis of the demand for goods and services in the selected market and its development trends.

2. Description of the market structure, its main segments, analysis of forms and methods of marketing.

3. Research of conditions of a competition on the segments of the market chosen for work.

All subsequent sections of the plan depend on the sales estimates made in this section. The volume of sales of goods and services, predicted as a result of the performed market research, has a direct impact on the production plan, marketing plan and the amount of invested capital that the company will need. The data obtained during the analysis of the competitive environment largely predetermine the sales strategy and pricing strategy of the enterprise in the selected market segments.

In the organizational plan of the project implementation the structure and policy of management are described, a brief description of the composition of the management team is given. When describing the organizational structure of an enterprise, one should consider:

■ the main divisions of the enterprise and its functions:

■ distribution of duties of management personnel;

■ methods of interaction between departments;

■ interest of the enterprise in the final results;

■ new types of work arising from the goals of the enterprise;

■ the necessary qualifications of the personnel.

The business plan provides detailed data for each head of the enterprise, the largest shareholders, members of the project development team, and the managed area of ​​work.

Financial plan for project implementation is prepared after the marketing plan and production plan are prepared. When developing it, one should take into account the divergence of interests of the participants in the investment project. The financial plan should include a brief overview of the conditions in which the enterprise will operate. It should contain data such as sales, gross profit, equipment costs, labor and other costs, as well as a detailed operational analysis of income and expenses, forming the net profit of the enterprise. This will form a complete picture of the profitability of the enterprise. This section of the business plan can only be drawn up after the scope (borders) of the project, as well as contingencies and inflation, have been determined.

The framework (boundaries) of the project implies the definition of:

■ all activities to be presented at the plant site;

■ additional operations related to the production, extraction of natural resources, cleaning Wastewater and emissions;

■ external transport and warehouses for raw materials and finished products;

■ external complementary activities (housing, vocational training, general education programs, construction of recreational facilities).

Unforeseen expenses are divided into material and financial. Tangible contingencies relate to the accuracy of forecasting sales, project requirements, materials, and services. In order to avoid losses, the design cost of the object includes a reserve of unforeseen costs in the amount of 5 to 10% of the estimated cost of the object.

Financial contingencies are related to inflation, changes in the base lending rate and other factors.

Accounting for inflation is carried out using the following data:

■ the general index of domestic ruble inflation, determined taking into account the systematically corrected working forecast of the course of inflation;

■ forecasts of the ruble exchange rate;

■ external inflation forecasts;

■ forecasts of changes in time in prices for products and resources (including gas, oil, energy resources, equipment, construction and installation works, raw materials, certain types of material resources), as well as forecasts of changes in the level of average wages and other indicators for the future;

■ forecast of tax rates, duties, refinancing rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and other financial standards of state regulation.

Using the above data, it is necessary to investigate the effect of inflation on price indicators, on the need for financing, and on the need for working capital.

Drawing up a financial plan takes place in several stages.

Stage 1- forecast of sales volumes. The sales volumes and value of sales in the respective markets for each year are calculated.

Stage 2- Calculation of costs for products and services sold. Calculations are made on the basis of the forecast of sales volumes, current regulations, pricing policy and terms of sale.

Stage 3 - description of counterparties, their reliability, distribution of contracts in time, costs for counterparties.

Stage 4- calculation of provision with raw materials, energy, water (technical and drinking), spare parts and operating materials for the first five years, as well as provision with labor resources.

5 stage - forecast of costs (conditionally constant, conditionally variable and total) but for years.

Stage 6 - calculation of the planned profit. The plan of expected profit is drawn up, the net profit or loss is calculated for each year.

Stage 7- Analysis of the point of critical volume of sales. Critical volume is revenue that accurately covers the operating costs of producing products and services. This amount of revenue is called the break-even point. It is necessary to analyze the critical volume of production.

Stage 8 - description of funding sources. When describing sources of funding, the following scheme is used:

■ sources of resource formation:

Own funds,

Borrowed funds;

■ after-tax profit distribution policy:

The share of profit directed to the accumulation fund,

Payment of dividends (terms and interest);

■ measures to control consumer payments, financial policy in relation to credit insurance;

■ performance evaluation criteria;

■ methods of insurance.

If it is planned to use a loan to finance the project, then the business plan provides a calculation of the procedure and terms for obtaining and repaying the loan, as well as paying interest payments.

As a result of the calculations carried out in the business plan, three basic forms of financial statements are compiled: a profit statement, a cash flow statement and a balance sheet.

The income statement illustrates the ratio of income received in the course of the production activities of the enterprise (project) during the period of the project, with the costs incurred in the same period and related to the receipt of income. Profit report is required to assess the effectiveness of current (economic) activities. An analysis of the ratio of income and expenses makes it possible to assess the reserves for increasing the project's equity capital, as well as to calculate the values ​​of various tax payments and dividends.

The cash flow statement provides information on the formation of sources of financial resources and the use of these financial resources. The sources of funds in the project can be: an increase in equity through the issuance of new shares, an increase in debt through loans and the issuance of bonds, proceeds from the sale of products and other expenses. In the event of share repurchases or losses from other sales and non-operating activities, negative values ​​may appear in the relevant positions.

The main areas of use of funds are connected, firstly, with investments in fixed assets and with the replenishment of working capital; secondly, with the implementation of current production (operational) activities; thirdly, with the servicing of external debt (payment of interest and debt repayment); fourthly, with settlements with the budget (tax payments) and, finally, with the payment of dividends.

An important point is that not all current costs of the project act as an outflow of funds, but only operating expenses and current interest payments. Depreciation deductions, being one of the cost items, are a source of financing for fixed assets. Therefore, the amount of free cash flow of the project is equal to the sum of net profit and depreciation charges for a specified period of time. Repayment of external debt is carried out at the expense of free cash, and not from profits.

In the balance sheet, for the sake of convenience of analysis, in design practice, the balance sheet is used in the aggregated, i.e. in an enlarged form. The purpose of the investment project balance is to illustrate the dynamics of changes in the structure of the project property (assets) and sources of its financing (liabilities). The balance provides the ability to calculate generally accepted indicators financial condition project, liquidity assessment, turnover ratios, agility, overall solvency, etc.

In the course of its implementation, an investment project must ensure an acceptable return on invested capital and maintain a stable financial condition. The successful solution of these problems is carried out on the basis of the analysis of a number of coefficients. The list of coefficients is determined by the specifics of the project, the most commonly used coefficients are presented in Table 1.

Table 1



When assessing the financial viability of investment projects, financial ratios are calculated that characterize each planning period, then the ratios are analyzed over time and trends in their change are identified.

Evaluation of the economic efficiency of the costs incurred during the implementation of the project, occupies a central place in the process of justification and selection options investments in transactions with real assets.

When developing this section of the business plan, it is necessary to use the Guidelines for the evaluation of investment projects and their selection for financing, developed by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia.

■ efficiency of the project as a whole;

■ effectiveness of participation in the project.

The effectiveness of the project as a whole is evaluated in order to determine the potential attractiveness of the project for possible participants and search for sources of funding. It includes:

■ social (socio-economic) efficiency, taking into account the socio-economic consequences of the project for society as a whole;

■ commercial efficiency, taking into account the financial implications of the project implementation for the participant implementing the investment project.

The effectiveness of participation in the project is determined in order to verify the feasibility of the investment project and the interest in it of all its participants. The effectiveness of participation in the project includes:

■ efficiency of participating enterprises;

■ efficiency of investing in the company's shares (for shareholders of joint-stock companies);

■ the effectiveness of participation in the project of structures of a higher level in relation to the participating enterprises (national economic, regional, sectoral);

■ budget efficiency.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the project is carried out in two stages.

At the first stage, the performance indicators of the project as a whole are calculated. For local projects, only their commercial effectiveness is evaluated and, if it turns out to be acceptable, it is recommended to proceed directly to the second stage of evaluation.

For socially significant projects, their social effectiveness is evaluated first of all. With an unsatisfactory public assessment, such projects are not recommended for implementation and cannot qualify for state support.

If their social effectiveness is sufficient, their commercial effectiveness is evaluated. In case of insufficient commercial efficiency of a socially significant project, it is recommended to consider the possibility of using various forms of its support, which would increase the commercial efficiency of the project to an acceptable level.

Investment business plan financing scheme

The second stage is to develop a financing scheme. At this stage, the composition of the participants is specified and the financial feasibility and effectiveness of participation in the project of each of them is determined.

To calculate the efficiency, it is proposed to use a number of indicators based on both simple (static) and complex (dynamic) calculation methods. All costs and revenues from the implementation of the project during the billing period are presented in the form of cash inflows and outflows. The result of the outflow of funds is the flow of real money, which is the balance of outflow and inflow for the billing period. Accounting for the time factor in determining and analyzing the results of the project at each stage is carried out by discounting cash flows, i.e. bringing their multi-temporal values ​​to the current current value. The main standard used in discounting is the discount rate. There are the following discount rates: commercial, project participant, social and budgetary.

Consider the main indicators used to calculate the effectiveness of an investment project.

Net income (NP, Net Value, NV) represents the difference between the accumulated cash income for the project and the accumulated costs, i.e. net income is the balance of accumulated cash income. Net income can be calculated using the formula



where NV- net income;

R - income by years generated by investments; 1C - investments by years; k = 1, 2, 3 ... P - the number of standard project implementation periods (legs, months).

For a project to be recognized as effective, it is necessary that the net income be a positive value.

Net present value (NPV, integral effect, Net Present Value, NPV) represents the difference between the accumulated discounted income on the project and the accumulated discounted investment, in other words, the net present value is the balance of the accumulated discounted income.

NPV used to compare future receipts and investment costs.



where GRU - net discounted income;

R - income by years generated by investments; g - discount rate: k = 1, 2, 3 ... P - number of standard project implementation periods (years, months); 1C - the amount of the one-time investment.

If the project involves not a one-time investment, but a consistent investment of resources over P years, then the formula looks like



If a NPV > Oh, then the project can be accepted.

NPV= Oh, the project is neither profitable nor unprofitable.

NPV< Oh, the project should be rejected.

If a NPV positive, then the project provides an opportunity to receive additional income in excess of a certain discount factor. If a NPV negative, this means that the projected cash receipts do not provide a minimum standard profit and return on invested capital. If a NPV close to zero, this means that the profit is barely secured.

This indicator belongs to the category of absolute. It shows how much the value of the company's assets increases from the implementation of this investment project. The more NPV, the better the characteristics of the project. This indicator is additive in time, i.e. NPV different projects can be summarized. This is an important property that allows you to use it in the analysis of the optimality of the investment portfolio.

NPV takes into account the life of the project - all income and expenses at all stages.

Internal rate of return (IRR, Internal Rate of Return, IRR) is such a discount rate at which the discounted value of real money inflows is equal to the discounted value of outflows, i.e. at r = IRR, NPV= 0.

economic sense IRR in that this indicator characterizes the maximum allowable relative level of costs that can be associated with this project. For example, if the project is funded entirely by a loan commercial bank, then the value IRR shows the upper limit of the acceptable level of the bank interest rate, the excess of which will make the project unprofitable.

If a IRR > CK, then the project can be considered and accepted if IRR > CK, then the project is unacceptable if IRR= CK, you can make any decision (CK - cost of invested capital).

Calculated IRR by choosing a discount rate at which NPV equals zero. If a NPV is positive, a higher discount rate is used. If a NPV is negative (at the next discount rate), then IRR must be between these two values. The accuracy of the calculation is inversely proportional to the length of the interval. If a NPV is equal to zero, then the value of the firm does not increase, but does not fall either. That's why IRR also called a test discount.

With help IRR you can weed out unprofitable projects or rank them according to the degree of profitability. It also serves as an indicator of the level of risk. The more IRR exceeds the cost of capital, the greater the margin of safety of the project and the less terrible market fluctuations and errors in estimating the amount of future cash receipts.

Simple payback period (Payback period, RR) - This is the period from the initial moment of investment to the moment of payback. The initial moment is indicated in the design task. The payback moment is the earliest period of time in the billing period, after which the current net income NV becomes and remains non-negative.

The calculation algorithm depends on the uniformity of the distribution of projected income. If income is distributed evenly over the years, then the payback period is calculated by dividing the one-time costs by the amount of annual income. If the profit is unevenly distributed over the years, then the payback period is calculated by directly counting the number of years during which the investment will be repaid with cumulative income.

Payback period including discounting (DPP)- this is the period from the initial moment to the moment of payback, taking into account discounting. The payback moment, taking into account discounting, is the earliest point in time in the billing period, after which the net present value becomes and remains non-negative in the future. The algorithm for calculating this indicator is the same as in determining the simple payback period, only indicators of the reduced cash flow are used.

The need for additional financing (PF) is the maximum value of the absolute value of the negative accumulated balance from investment and operating activities. The PF value shows the minimum amount of external financing of the project required to ensure its financial feasibility. Therefore, PF is also called risk capital. It should be borne in mind that the real volume of external financing does not have to coincide with the PF and, as a rule, exceeds it due to the need to service the debt.

The need for additional financing, taking into account the discount (DFT) - the maximum value of the absolute value of the negative accumulated discounted balance from investment and operating activities. The value of the DFT shows the minimum discounted amount of external financing of the project required to ensure its financial feasibility.

Profitability index of costs - the ratio of the amount of cash inflows (accumulated receipts) to the amount of cash outflows (accumulated payments).

The discounted cost return index is the ratio of the sum of discounted cash inflows to the sum of discounted cash outflows.

Investment return index (IR) - the ratio of the sum of cash flow elements from operating activities to the absolute value of the sum of cash flow elements from investment activities. It is equal to the ratio of net income increased by one (NP, YU) to the accumulated investment. This indicator is calculated by the formula

where ID - index of return on investment; CHD - net income; 1C - investments according to the years of the investment cycle;

Discounted investment yield index (DII) is the ratio of the sum of discounted cash flow elements from operating activities to the absolute value of the discounted sum of cash flow elements from investment activities. NDI is equal to the ratio of net present value increased by one (NPV, NRU) to the accumulated discounted investment. This indicator can be calculated using the formula



where IDI - index of profitability of discounted investments; YRU - net discounted income;

1C - investments by years of the investment cycle; G - discount rate;

To accept the project for consideration, it is necessary that the cost and investment indices be greater than one. Profitability indices characterize the return of the project on invested capital. The indices are greater than one if the net income and net present value of the project are positive.

When calculating the efficiency, it is recommended to take into account the uncertainty, i.e. incompleteness and inaccuracy of information about the conditions for the implementation of the project and the risk, i.e. the possibility of occurrence of such conditions that will lead to negative consequences for all or individual project participants. Project performance indicators calculated taking into account uncertainty and risk factors are called expected.

To assess the sustainability and effectiveness of the project under conditions of uncertainty, it is recommended to use the following methods:

■ an aggregated sustainability assessment;

■ calculation of break-even levels;

■ parameter variation method;

■ assessment of the expected effect, taking into account the quantitative characteristics of uncertainty.

All of these methods, except for the first, involve the development of scenarios for the implementation of the project in the most likely or most dangerous conditions and the assessment of financial consequences. This makes it possible, if necessary, to provide in the project for measures to prevent or redistribute the resulting losses.

The project is considered sustainable if, under all scenarios, it turns out to be effective and financially feasible, and possible adverse effects are eliminated by measures provided for by the organizational and economic mechanism of the project.

Project risk is accounted for by adjusting the discount rate. The inclusion of a risk adjustment is usually done when a project is evaluated under a single implementation scenario. The risk adjustment value takes into account three types of risks associated with the implementation of an investment project:

1) insurance risk;

2) the risk of unreliability of project participants;

3) the risk of non-receipt of the income provided for by the project. The adjustment for each type of risk is not introduced if the investment is insured for the relevant insured event.

The given structure of the business plan is not frozen. Depending on the purpose, scale, complexity of the investment project, the number of sections, their content, the depth of study of the material may change, which will affect the structure and content of the business plan.

The ubiquity of personal computers has led to the use of various computer programs for financial and economic calculations for investment projects. The Russian market currently has a wide range of software packages designed for use at various stages of investment projects. The most popular are the following software products: COMFAR, developed by the UN Industrial Development Organization (C)NIDO); PROJECT-Expert developed by PRO-Invest-Consulting; Alt-Invest, developed by "Alt" and others.

Maxim Onishchenko

Especially for Information Agency "Financial Lawyer"

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Good afternoon, Oleg!
Thanks for the new article, I’m interested in the Moscow Exchange, which is apparently going to go below 100, if there are any real risks of a protracted closing of the dividend gap, or is it possible to select for the current ones what they will give without worrying about anything?
Thank you!

Good morning Maria. I don't pay much attention to dividend gaps - they will close sooner or later. The Moscow exchange is a very long story for me, and I buy it slowly ... And for the current ones, I would buy more slowly, slowly. Maybe they will give it cheaper - but I don’t know for sure ... I don’t think that it (this investment) will quickly give some amazing result. But sooner or later there will be a fashion for brokerage accounts - then these shares will play ...

Oleg, you seem to have had Rosneft before. Now no longer?

Comments are not a platform for a report or article. They do not need to write for 10 minutes. And if you have a need to write an article, then do it on your own resources, and if the articles are not crazy, then people will reach out to you. I'll definitely be back, I promise :)

There is still a way (I have been using it for a long time, because not only there is such a restriction, but when contacting banks, most often also): press win + R, type notepad in the pop-up window, press enter and notepad immediately opens. Write your comment in it for at least an hour, at least two, and then copy and paste it into the form. Accustom yourself to such an algorithm and this problem will never affect you again :)

What pause then to establish? If not 10 minutes, then how long?

Good afternoon Oleg!
Your phrase "a parade of devaluations of key currencies is very likely in the coming years"
I would like more details plz...
I think that the devaluation of the ruble, hryvnia, and even the euro is quite possible. but they should all devalue in theory relative to the dollar.
Isn't it easier to hold money not in OFZ, but in the same bucks, for example? in the event of a devaluation or a sharp correction in the value of shares ...
what do you think about this?

Oleg, Good afternoon! Do you think Rusal will be able to get out of the sanctions? Will concessions be squeezed out of Deripaska?

Oleg, good afternoon. I noticed that you do not have Phosagro shares in your portfolio, did you sell it? There used to be... If possible, what is your opinion about the prospects of the company. Thanks in advance!

Good evening, Oleg!
You write "the financial sector is the most attractive for buying this year." Still, it is understood that he is especially attractive after the upcoming strengthening of sanctions on the financial sector? :)

Good morning, Dmitriy. Well, when the sanctions are still accepted, he will become mega-sympathetic :) I’m even afraid to think about this ... it’s Sberbank for 80 and other similar debauchery :)

Oleg, I just saved up my 6% in OFZ (it was quite difficult not to break loose and not bribe something) and for a couple of days I thought to put everything into the Savings Bank, VTB and Moscow Exchange and leave everything as it is, but now I’ll wait =))) Not a fact, that it will be, but where to hurry.

Good time and thank you, Oleg, for sharing your vision. tell me how it is better to be - I actively form the fund part of the portfolio, every month I transfer 5-7 tr to the account, so far so comfortable. and buy some of the dividend papers that are appropriately priced now. I understand that it would be necessary to keep part of it in short OFZs "just in case", but when money appears, Mechel pr fell to 110, then Cherkizovo to 1050. ? everything is fine with discipline, and issues with housing are resolved with a margin

Sorry, I will answer for Oleg a frequent question. You don’t really need bonds as long as your replenishment for the year is more than the expected annual return of the portfolio (say, 10% ...) - in the event of a market fall, you will cover the fall of the portfolio with contributions for the year, and even buy good assets cheaply. Bonds are also being partially replaced by cheap divitickers. When the portfolio is large, bonds are not harmful, but Oleg has been almost without them for the 2nd year ...

thanks for the answer. and so I will do. while the ongoing overhaul does not lead to an increase in contributions. and since there is, I consistently select what they give

Oleg, considering the above questions asked and the answer of AndreyS. on bonds. Is it possible to formulate a rule for bonds: bonds in the portfolio + investments = 10-20% of the portfolio in annual terms? Or too many reservations? Thank you.

There are no rules - there is a specific stage of investment, a specific assessment of the situation in the economy and the behavior that follows from them. By formulating the "rules" you run the risk of missing the moment when they do not correspond to the changed situation in income, expenses, the state of the portfolio, and the economy. Decisions do not have to be made so often that there is no time to fully think.

Good afternoon to all the participants in the discussion and the author of the article.
Inspired by the thoughts of AndreyS. about the investment stage.
I have been analyzing my behavior and the state of my capital since 2013. When I knew practically nothing about the real estate market, investing, and so on.
So, for example, since 2008, when the market was at the very bottom, the MICEX has grown by almost 280%. That is, it grew by an average of 28% per year.
The ruble depreciated by 174% against the dollar.
That is, in general, in terms of dollars, capitals should not have dried up, but remained at the same level. Even with passive investment - Bought and hold.
But since my capital was in rubles and invested in other instruments, with different results, at the moment I am looking for the most suitable scheme for dealing with capital. For the future. Which comes at the most inopportune time usually)
In this regard, a number of questions arose:
It is clear that if we consider investing in an index, for example, the MICEX or S & P500, it is necessary to "guess", that is, to calculate the VNR. From which it is worth buying. But this option is rather extended in time. And not very predictable. (Here both knowledge and psychology of behavior turn on) This bottom can be waited for indefinitely, as in the case of the S&P correction. Therefore, there remains the option of searching and buying individual shares, individual attractive companies on the market. About which Oleg and the participants of the discussion write here.
With the choice of individual issuers a separate conversation.
But how to calculate the marginal value at which securities become interesting? Who, how, finds and determines for himself that value when, with the correction of individual companies or the entire market, you can put on the whole cutlet?
Surely there are some books, courses, techniques ...
Thanks in advance for any thoughts.

Yet, on average, the MICEX index did not grow by 28%, if you had it in mind. For example, the minimum on the MICEX on November 11, 2008 was 503.54 points. The current value of the index is 2292.72. That is, over this period (almost 10 years), the index grew by 4.55 times. And the yield calculated on the geometric mean was 16.36%. There is a small assumption here: I assumed that until November 2018 the index would remain at its current level. And so it turns out the yield is slightly higher than 16.36%.
Everyone calculates the most acceptable prices for shopping in their own way. And it is impossible to say with certainty which of the calculators will be right in the future.

Thank you.
Apparently I don’t know how to use a calculator yet) I’ll google how to calculate the average annual yield.
By calculating prices, I realized that there are no formulas ((I'll have to look and learn.

Calculating the geometric mean is easy. Either multiply the value of the annual returns and get the product, or divide the annual return last year in the analyzed period by the annual yield of the first year in the analyzed period. You will get private. It doesn't matter how you count, in both cases the values ​​will be equal. Then take the root of this value to a power equal to the number of years in the period.
If the yield for the year is, for example, 15%, write 1.15. If the yield is 7%, write 1.07. If the yield is negative, for example -15%, write 0.85. You multiply these results, and you get the product from which you extract the root. Or divide, for example, 2000 by 1000, and you get the quotient, and from this quotient you extract the root in the degree.
It is possible to judge the attractiveness of an investment as Oleg suggests: if the return on investment is predicted to be higher than the return on risk-free bonds. Or you can discount cash flows, or look at how much the share price is above or below the net asset value per share, or look at how many annual earnings the company is trading at, or whatever. There are many options. Who likes what.

A small correction to the comment describing how the geometric mean return is calculated. Divide not the annual return of the last year in the period by the annual return of the first year in the period, but the annual return of the last year of the analyzed period by the annual return of the year bordering the first year of the analyzed period. That is, if you need to calculate the return for the period from 2010 to 2017 (for eight years), you must divide the annual return of 2017 by the annual return of 2009, which is the starting point. Well, from the resulting quotient, extract the root raised to the eighth power. minus 1.

There should be a smiley face with bulging eyes.
Thank you for such a comprehensive tutorial.
From my point of view, of course, it is not an understandable way to calculate the average annual profitability of a period, for example, 10 years.
As I understand it, you propose to take only the yield of the boundary years. For example, 2007 and 2017. Let's say they are both - 10%, and the rest of the years (intermediate) -30%. How does the 8th root know about it?
According to attractiveness, I will smoke literature ...
Thank you.

I personally compare the current market value of money with my own forecast for the yield of certain securities. If the yield suits and carries a significant premium to the price of money - I buy ... I try not to guess the bottom - this is a very troublesome business and not reliable ....

For some reason, in all this reasoning about the return of the index, dividends are forgotten. In fact, dividends are the main source of income when investing in an index.

Good morning, Eugene. As long as the assets (shares) are cheap, and you have more than 2% of the capital per month, it is wiser to buy more shares when replenishing the account. The holiday will end when the shares are expensive by multipliers and common sense, or when the capital grows so much that the replenishment becomes invisible to the portfolio. ..

Oleg, could you please explain in more detail about the change in your strategy from being 100% in stocks in May to accumulating bonds in the last 2-3 months? In your post, you write that there will be a currency devaluation parade, and earlier (as far as I remember, at the beginning of the year) you wrote that when currencies devalue, you cannot be in monetary instruments and only in stocks. Why then now switched to the accumulation of the cache? What was the trigger in the last 3 months since May? Thank you!

Oleg, what do you think about variable coupon bonds? After all, in theory, now the party and the government are clearly trying to disperse inflation from an extremely low 2%? (VAT, petrol prices, etc.). This means that the coupon that is tied to inflation should logically grow. Or am I not understanding something?

Oleg, good afternoon!
You said somewhere that your capital on the exchange grows on average by 25% per year. Please tell me, is this with or without dividend reinvestment?

Hello. Let me "join". I was "carried away" and "head spinning". What torments me?
In November, the United States will have another election-re-election. Democrats (while they still have power) can fill up the markets - so you have to go into cash. This is FIRST. SECOND - there is a possibility that the dollar will be a regional currency, then what will happen to the markets: up or down? Will the "imperialists" run from Sberbank and others. Or will they cling to the "stranglehold"? Thank you for attention.

Good morning Sergey. I don't know how the markets will behave in the US elections. I think that the elections will not have a special impact on the markets, except that the elections themselves will develop into a civil confrontation in the States ... Sooner or later, the dollar will become a regional currency. This case is inevitable, like the collapse of capitalism :) Of course, with such a big transformation of the markets, asset prices will fall ... But when this happens - God knows ... The imperialists are already fleeing from Sberbank ... but I think they will finally run away to the nearest a year or two - it will be a good opportunity to buy, you have to watch ...
I myself, when I have the idea that some political events will greatly affect the profitability of my portfolio, and especially when it seems that one political event is very, very important, then I arrange an information detox for myself, for a couple of months I prohibit read the news and comments on them :) Every year there are some elections, wars in the world, the world stands on the threshold or flies into the abyss, every single year. You can go crazy if every time you try to guess the significance of these events (mostly fraudulent) for the value of assets ....

Oleg good afternoon!
About the collapse of capitalism - is this sarcasm? Or are you serious, according to Marx?

Hello. In continuation of the topic: what is the probability that, roughly speaking, from tomorrow until November, "democrats" will give rise to capital flight from the market? In my opinion, the likelihood is high in order to lower Trump's ratings and earn his political points on this.

Good day, Sergey. Honestly, I don’t know... I think that the probability of such a move is minimal... But I don’t know for sure...

Sergey-5, can you clarify your idea? What market - American? What kind of capital - foreign American? Or American? Why would capital flee from the market where it is expected? Income threat? But after all, the market does not exist as an appendage to politics, but rather the opposite - politics serves the interests of major market players. Trump seems to be acting straightforwardly in the interests of American business executives and it is on them and their workforce that he is counting on support. For Democrats, to shake up the American market means to shit in your own apartment and confirm your loss. Is not it?

Hello Oleg.

Explain what is the homespun truth of OFZ with near maturity.
The key word is close.

Oleg, good afternoon! The other day, Trump announced the construction of terminals in Europe to receive American liquefied natural gas. In general, it is clear that the sanctions are measures to squeeze Gazprom out of Europe. But in the future, 3-5 years looks threatening for Gazprom. Not? how do you look at it?

Good afternoon, Dmitry. This is very positive for Gazprom. The more the EU will consume American liquefied gas Russian origin, the more expensive we will sell pipeline gas to them. And yes, it will be the EU that will build terminals for Novatek and Gazprom, and not for the Americans, only some sellers of Russian gas will be American :)

Wow "spin"! I counted on 300 rubles to drop part of Gazik, and now I need to think about it.

Doesn't Asia-Pacific Ocean take everything there?

Good afternoon Oleg. Do you see any risks for Gazprom in the scheme of increasing the severance tax (as it was already adopted at the end of this year) instead of increasing dividend payments. And in general, the emergence of similar (or other) schemes in other state corporations in the future?

Good day, Sergey. Yes, the increase in the severance tax hurts... But against the backdrop of success in business, it is tolerable... I think it will be difficult to turn such fraud into a permanent practice. The Russian government is just one of the players, if you repeat the trick, you can get a bunch of lawsuits against Gazprom from minority shareholders with extensive experience in litigation ... yes, I think that there will be lawsuits in this, so far the only, case ...

I raised this issue on the VO forum. No answer. I believe that it is time to slowly prepare a class action lawsuit from minority shareholders with such an eye that the court would adopt a ruling, or whatever it is called, so that there would no longer be encroachments on the withdrawal of income through taxes bypassing dividends.

Oleg, however, they will not build new terminals in Europe. They have built terminals in sufficient quantity, and they are severely underutilized. There is no need for new ones. Gazprom's management has been pointing to this for a long time, as well as to the fact that liquefied gas from the United States is supplied bypassing Europe to where it is more expensive on the spot: Latin America, Southeast Asia. One China is worth something. And here is the latest news from the news agency PRIME - the statement of the head of OMV:
"MOSCOW, Aug 2 - PRIME. Europe does not need the construction of new LNG terminals at all in order to be able to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, since the capacities already available in the EU to receive it are already so much underutilized, said the head of the Austrian oil and gas company OMV Rainer Seele during a press conference.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and US President Donald Trump said on July 25 that the European Union wants to increase LNG imports from the US to diversify its energy supply. Juncker said that the EU is ready to invest in the construction of new LNG terminals if prices are competitive. And on July 30, Trump announced that the US and the EU are discussing the construction of 9-11 new LNG terminals in Europe for American LNG at the expense of the European Union.

"If you look at the load levels of the LNG receiving terminals available in Europe, you will find that the rate is so low that Europeans do not necessarily need to build new terminals in order to be able to buy American LNG. This is not necessary, and this is important," Zele said.

In addition, the head of OMV noted that the EU market will be open to the American US only if prices for it are competitive. "This is a key point in this matter. The market in Europe is based on competition, we have been fighting for decades to make it so. And (only - ed.) If LNG supplies from the United States are competitive, then market participants will buy it," - he added.

At the same time, according to Seele, now a large number of LNG from the US is supplied to the Asian market, not Europe, due to higher prices for liquefied gas in the Asia-Pacific region. "So I don't think we can attract these volumes based on... the prices we have here," he said.

At the same time, the head of OMV found it difficult to comment on the difference in the cost of LNG from the United States and Russian pipeline gas, which occupies the main share in Europe's gas imports. "I can only refer to the information that I read in various materials major producers… But I think the difference between US LNG and Russian pipeline gas is about 50%. Whether it's true or not, I don't know, it's what I read," he concluded.

Dmitry, hello!
One of the first batches of tankers from the Yamal-LNG project left for the USA in Boston when there were frosts. This happened because there is no gas pipeline through which gas can be delivered to Boston from the regions where it is produced. That is, before the creation of an infrastructure similar to the existing one at Gazprom, the States still have a lot to do.
The second reason for the supply of Russian LNG to the United States is that in the United States coastal transportation on non-American-made ships is prohibited, and not a single LNG tanker has been built at American shipyards! And just now, a draft law has been introduced in the United States so that from 2032, 10% of export oil shipments from the United States will be provided by tankers of the United States, and from 2040, 15% of LNG supplies abroad will be carried out by American gas carriers. So for the time being, Russian liquefied gas will continue to flow to the northeastern states of the United States, in particular from Novatek.
It turns out that for the United States to seriously compete with Russian LNG, it may take another 10-20 years. Well, at this time, our companies will also not stand still ... It seems to me so.

good time to all.
I will put in a dispute about the types of gas 5 kopecks. Yesterday I listened to a recording of a radio broadcast on Vesti FM. the guest was Konstantin Simonov, head of the National Energy Security Fund. http://vestifm.podfm.ru/iron...
discussed the statements of Trump, Juncker, etc. I advise everyone to listen, it takes a little less than an hour. at first, there was also a slight panic, after all the arguments, I realized that this was noodles on the ears, either for Trump, or for the media, or somewhere else. in short, Europe has a docher of LNG terminals, now they are loaded by less than 25%. The European Commission basically does not buy gas and cannot order anyone to buy it. if Europe could give up Russian gas, it would have given up long ago. I wish everyone a cold mind!

Everything! All divas for 2017 came. Everything is within the expected range. Well, and, of course, there are those who give a positive and “energizing boost”, show that we need to move forward, look to the future, take a closer look, count on more. It is important for me what the action cost me and how much it gives me from it. Calculate the net (net of taxes) dividend yield in relation to the average purchase.
Here are my feeders:
- MMC - 25%
- Tatneft pref - 74%
- PermEnargoSbyt pref - 44%
- Alrosa - 14%
- LenEnergo pref - 116%
- Mechel pref - 18%
That the coming year???

Oleg, welcome! I would like to clarify your opinion about Aeroflot. stocks have sunk a lot, but at the same time good divas are paying. Is it worth it to think and put them in a portfolio?
The same question for the FGC, is it worth getting in the current fall?

Oleg, how do you perceive Andrey Belousov's initiative to withdraw excess profits from a number of companies (Nornickel, Mechel, etc.)? How dangerous is this for investors?

I take it as an invitation to a discussion about development resources. It is high time to discuss this topic in an adult way ... it is good that the President initiated this discussion.
For investors, this is not fraught with anything. It is necessary to follow the discussion - extremely important things will be decided both for investors and for citizens.

Some see this as an analogy with the windfall tax in the UK. Those. As always, we are not the first to come up with something like this.

An article on Regnum (https://regnum.ru/news/246300...) about the possible dismantling of the liberal economy. The article mentions Belousov's proposal to confiscate "surplus profits". Although I do not understand how this can be called windfall, when it is known that the metallurgical and petrochemical industries are cyclical. There are periods of decline in world prices, there are periods of rise. Now industries are experiencing just such a rise in global prices. A few years will pass and it will be replaced by a recession. These "surplus profits" were formed due to the fact that world prices rose (this is one) and due to the fact that companies finished capex (this is two). The two events overlapped. This happens infrequently. Now these companies have the opportunity to create a cushion of reserves for themselves. The moment the prices of their products go down, companies will be able to finance themselves out of these reserves. And now they want to withdraw these "surplus profits", then the companies will not be able to create such reserves. And when the prices for products (metal or fertilizers) go down, they will go around with outstretched hands and beg money from the state, finding themselves in a dependent position in relation to it. Now, when the state wants to withdraw these "surplus profits", it provokes further insolvency of the companies' financial policy.
In light of the article I mentioned above, there are questions. Can it get to the point where joint-stock companies, shares and dividends are canceled in Russia? And will Russia fall back into the Soviet Union and total distribution and leveling?
I do not understand what the introduction of new sanctions leads to. To whom are they actually directed?
On the one hand, the United States fences itself off from the world behind high steel duties, as if provoking companies that used to supply steel to the United States to organize production in the United States. Those. high duties are good in terms of the fact that the United States stimulates the transfer of this production inland, this in turn will create new jobs (not only in the metallurgical industry, but also in related industries) and, as a result, increase the power of the country.
On the other hand, it imposes sanctions. Those. limits the circulation and use of the dollar in the world. Anyone who wants to use the dollar will have to comply with these requirements. Here I do not understand why they are doing this and what it will lead to in the long run.
Why so clung to Deripaska? Why did he not please the US?

If you read Belousov's biography, then questions about "surplus profits" will disappear. This is a hereditary appartchik of the old school, as I understand it. Accordingly, he is hardly interested in how the market works. He is interested in how to take away and "divide fairly." A kind of modern Shvonder. All hope is that in the country and in the government not everyone is like that, and not for the sake of communism, people have been working all the last years.

So, during the union, giant enterprises were created by all the people, not so that later in the 90s they would be redistributed by "effective owners". Effective ones are those who shot each other better than others.

As, for example, Khazin said in an interview, “Here is one of the strongest insults to the fallen, this is precisely the fact that those people who died for the construction of Norilsk Nickel here, the situation developed in such a way that with the money that arose from what they built, Prokhorov used to take the b***ey to Courchevel. This is an insult to the memory of the fallen. It shouldn't be like this."

Don't you think that if the market economy does not periodically "give" the results of its activities to the people (similar to the windfall tax in the UK), then the people will again be crushed by the right direction and this market economy will again be canceled as in 1917? With all the necessary consequences like a civil war.

There is no one we have now to arrange civil wars. Compare the demographic pyramids of Russia in 1897 and 2018. And we also do not have a huge number of internal migrants demobilized from the front.

Restoring historical justice is a dangerous path. And it won't take you where you want to go. No, I don't think it's necessary to give something to someone. A freebie is still not appreciated, but it corrupts. I'm not a big fan of the Deripaskas and the Abramovichs, but I think that Putin is doing the right thing by acknowledging the results of privatization (however lousy it may be) and stopping further redistribution of property. Because if you do not stop, then every time there will be a new redistribution, when someone does not like something. Ukraine is a great example of this. For 30 years after perestroika, 3 revolutions, constant leapfrog, anarchy and impoverishment. We, as people who want to earn something in the market, do not need this.
The authorities take taxes from business anyway. And they should be reasonable, and the rules should not change all the time. Especially because some old apparatchik suddenly decided to "take and share" everything. If you want to please the people, go and ask what the people dream about. And I'll tell you this: life-long pensions from the age of 30 in the amount of 100 thousand per month, excellent roads and free medicine, and at the same time people do not want to pay taxes on their income, real estate to "these thieves." Like this. How much will you build on such a basis?
To avoid any shocks, I think it would be nice to have stable rules, let everyone earn money, and not rob the rich simply because "he has it, but I don't." Here the stock market gives everyone the opportunity to earn at the very least. And Belousov offers everyone who is more prosperous to rob. We don't need this. I don’t even want to talk about the impact of his words on the investment climate, because the words are only obscene.

Similar thoughts.

>No, I do not think that something should be given to someone. A freebie is still not appreciated, but it corrupts.

England and its history do not agree with you. They had the last revolution in the 17th century and that's it. Even the monarchy has been preserved, albeit decorative. Why do you think?
I think because they go the way of mitigating social tension by sharing with the population. Like for example windfall tax (wrote above) as well as the UK benefits system, and similar progressive taxes.

In our country, the ideology "I, mine, I will not give back" led to three revolutions at the beginning of the 20th century, and then to the counter-revolution of the 91st year according to the same "I, mine." Do you want to repeat? History, apparently, does not teach.

>Many you build on this basis?

It is in this formulation that nothing can be built. But you have it too exaggerated, as you yourself know. I am not suggesting that the entire population should be allowed to lie down on the sofa. I talked about softening, and you turn my words to the extreme. Not constructive.

>let everyone make money

How is that? The market and capitalism are not designed for this. Who did not fit into the market - on the street. There have always been such rules. It is enough to look at the USA how many homeless people there are in California.

> the stock market provides an opportunity.

You know very well that he gives this opportunity only to those who can think. Who does not know how - there loses. And most of them.
Those who can think are very, very fewer than those who can't. But everyone knows how to hold a pitchfork, if cho.

England / USA are the leading world powers, pulling resources from all over the Earth, they have the opportunity to share with their population, the rest have it worse.

Now they are leading and world. But it didn't happen all of a sudden! There was a period of formation. And how did it happen? Let's go back to history. Quote from one British imperialist Cecil Rhoads, late 19th century if I'm not mistaken:

"- Yesterday I was in London's East End (a working quarter) and attended a meeting of the unemployed. When I listened to wild speeches there that were a continuous cry: bread, bread! - I, going home and thinking about what I saw, was more than convinced first, in the importance of imperialism ... My cherished idea is the solution of the social question, namely: in order to save the forty million inhabitants of the United Kingdom from a murderous civil war, we colonial politicians must take possession of new lands to accommodate the surplus of the population, to acquire new areas for the sale of goods produced in factories and mines. Empire, I have always said it, is a matter of the stomach. If you don't want civil war, you must become imperialists."

Imperialism, conquest of other peoples, etc. - I can’t say that this is good, but this is the way of life and the usual thinking of that time. And what is the British imperialist going to spend the profits from this colonial policy on? In order to feed their population, so as not to provoke a civil war in their country.

And what was it customary to spend such profits on in the Russian Empire even now? To the thickness of your pocket. We know how the Empire ended. It would be interesting to live to see the end of her current reincarnation. But judging by the fact that the ideology of "I, mine" sits firmly - it should end the same. For sooner or later, the left here () will still start asking the right "why is this so?" And as you can see, there are many more.

nike, the whole pathos of your message comes down to a simple thought, in essence: it is necessary to take away from the rich and distribute to the poor in order to extinguish the flame of the future proletarian revolution in the bud.
One shop manager once told me that I only care about my own good, wanting the company in which I own shares to grow rich. That is, according to him, I am not interested in the fact that the company profits at the expense of people, as long as I feel good. He made me look like an egoist. And it was then about Cherkizovo. In general, he turned out to be a fighter for social justice. To which I answered him in the following spirit (I quote the content of our conversation not verbatim): I told him that there is no social justice. There are various groups of people whose interests conflict with the interests of other groups. Here you are talking about the infringement of the rights of proletarians by greedy capitalists, but look: I am the most ordinary proletarian who invested money in shares of MMK, and another proletarian could invest money in shares of Norilsk Nickel or Severstal. And now our conditional group of proletarians, due to Belousov's initiative, may lose part of the dividend income, and lose in the market value of the portfolio. Where is the justice here? In the name of improving the life of some proletarians who do not have shares, in whose favor the "surplus profits" of companies will be redistributed, the interests of a group of proletarians who own shares will be infringed. Talk about social justice is fertile ground for speculation on problems for different kind politicians, and nothing more. None of them care about social justice. Under the talk of social justice, various groups promote their interests, often far from any social justice. Now, if there were an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude more of us, owners of shares, then the infringement of the interests of companies would be an infringement of the rights of very many people in this country, and it was precisely the infringement of the rights of shareholders that could significantly affect the nature of the statements of various kinds of statesmen, because these attacks on the business of companies would affect the material interests of many voters-shareholders.
I can give a huge number of examples showing that the adoption of a political decision taken in favor of some sections of the population is in conflict with the interests of other sections of the population. So "social justice" is nothing more than a slogan, hanging noodles on the ears of the townsfolk.

>all the pathos of your message comes down to a simple thought, in essence: it is necessary to take away from the rich, and distribute to the poor, in order to extinguish the flame of the future proletarian revolution in the bud.

It is possible to say so. What's wrong with this proposal? Or do you still need a proletarian revolution?

And since you have started talking in such terms, then let's completely move into this field. For example, "groups of people whose interests conflict with those of other groups." are classes. A conflict of interests is a class struggle. But this “I am the most ordinary proletarian who invested in MMK shares” is already called a petty bourgeois, and not a proletarian at all. Proletariat from lat. proletarius - lit. "producing offspring" Those. meaning a class of people who have no property other than children. Hence your "share-owning proletarian" is, excuse me, "fried snow".

"Now, if there were an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude more of us, the owners of shares." Yes, it would. If. But that's not the case now. Unfortunately, the nineties, with their vouchers, MMM candy wrappers, and the like Khoper-invest and charging water in front of the screen, weaned people from believing in all sorts of papers. Therefore, when talking about actions with ordinary workers (yes, even with office plankton, which I myself am), I see that they look at me as if they were Kashpirovsky. And this will not change soon.

Therefore, faith in the concept of "social justice" is very strong. And no amount of persuasion can change that. In response, you will always hear something like "but in England. But in Germany."

Hence the right stop, i.e. on natural social inequality, in my opinion, will quickly lead to events similar to Ukrainian ones. Those. to the redistribution of property between the oligarchs, swept by the needs of the population in social justice. And in extreme cases, and to (yes, yes) the proletarian revolution. And therefore, if there is a not very costly opportunity to manifest left-wing reforms, then it is necessary to manifest them. Do not be greedy just because you are smarter than many.

naik, let's start by telling you that I'm a little familiar with Marxist terminology. In my youth I had occasion to read collections of articles by Marx and Engels. "Capital" Marx mastered, "The Origin of the Family and Private Property" Engels defeated. I read the 4th and 5th editions of Ulyanov (Lenin). If my memory serves me, the 4th edition was in dark brown hardcover and the 5th in blue.
What are classes and class struggle, I perfectly understand, but you present the matter in this way. that a class is something monolithic. It is clear that the class has its own fundamental interest - the struggle for a larger piece of surplus value, but within the class there are many groups of proletarians whose interests may conflict.
By the way, from the fact that the proletarian owns shares, he does not cease to be a proletarian, and does not go over to the ranks of the petty bourgeoisie. After all, he does not even have a small business, and he does not exploit other proletarians. That is, the means of production are not concentrated in his hands. What is "fried snow" here? If you bring your thesis to its logical conclusion, then, provided that you are also a proletarian, opening a deposit in a bank by you can just as well be considered a reason to classify you as a petty bourgeoisie because, after opening a deposit, you begin to exploit other proletarians not directly, but indirectly. The bank can issue your money as a loan to some Mordashev, and he will expand production with this money and begin to squeeze all the juice out of the proletarian Vasily, who will create a surplus product for Mordashev, part of which will be returned to the bank where your deposit is opened, and part of the paid Mordashev interest on the loan will fall into your pocket. In fact, you, not being a petty bourgeois, will exploit the unfortunate Vasily. Therefore, classifying you as a class of petty bourgeois is the same nonsense as you classifying me as a member of the same class. We all exploit each other, either directly or indirectly, but not all of us are bourgeois.

“Therefore, faith in the concept of“ social justice ”is very strong. And you won’t cancel it with any persuasion. In response, you will always hear something like“ but in England. But in Germany."

And I have no desire to persuade anyone, and I am not going to cancel anything. I'm only talking about how things really are with social justice.
By the way, just imagine the following situation: there is a bank to which you gave a loan at a conditional 7%. The bank, in turn, gave your money to a cooperative of weavers who decided to establish a weaving industry. Their business failed and they went bankrupt. They did not return the loan, but in the bank, which is on the verge of closing (I proceed from the condition that the weavers and you were the only clients of the bank), they told you that you will not see a deposit or interest on them because there is nowhere to get money from payments. What will you do: go to sue the bank? You go to break glass in the houses of unfortunate weavers who wanted the best, or just tell your wife that, dear, I'm sorry, money bye-bye. Will you and your wife think that the bank acted cruelly, trampling social justice, and leaving you and your wife penniless? Or forgive everything to everyone, or forgive the weavers for their lack of entrepreneurial streak?

“Hence, the right emphasis, i.e., on natural social inequality, in my opinion, will quickly lead to events similar to Ukrainian ones. (yes, yes) of the proletarian revolution. And therefore, if there is a not very costly opportunity to manifest left-wing reforms, then it is necessary to do so. Do not be greedy just because you are smarter than many. "

Look, at all those enterprises that were on Belousov's list, a lot of ordinary proletarians work. Almost all companies are to some extent indebted or have investment programs. Taking money from them can lead to a reduction in production, the dismissal of workers who have families with children. This can lead to a reduction in purchasing power in the area where the enterprises are located, and to a reduction in the business of companies that satisfy the needs of local proletarians (dry cleaners, shops, canteens, etc.), which in turn will lead to the dismissal of workers employed in these firms. And where is the social justice? Fighting the specter of a future proletarian revolution caused by the exacerbation of class contradictions in a certain perspective, conditions are being formed for the growth of social discontent in the near future. And this, from your point of view, is a socially adjusted policy?

I will not argue on Marxism, because it can result in entire scientific articles. Let me just say that you are trying to juggle terms in order to defend your position. Ownership of shares is not the ownership, among other things, of a part of the company's fixed assets? Those. means of production. For some reason you don't. What then do we own with shares?

"By the way, just imagine this situation: there is a bank to which you gave a loan at a conditional 7%" - it's hard for me to imagine such a situation. Because giving all the capital to one bank is a very stupid step. Who to blame? Only myself, of course. Of course, claims must be made to the bank, not to the weavers. And then if the game is worth the candle, otherwise the legal costs can cost more than the deposit itself, which disappeared in this bank.

"Taking money from them can lead to" - of course it can. If this "weaning" (a bad word, sets up a wrong understanding right away) will be carried out very stupidly. Of course, this "weaning" must be done very carefully. Further, I can’t answer you better on this topic, how to ask for the third time to inquire about the history of Windfall Tax in the UK in 97m. Tony Blair, I THINK, no more stupid than our politicians or you and me. And British enterprises did not go bankrupt much from this.

“I won’t argue on Marxism, because it can result in entire scientific articles. I can only say that you are trying to juggle terms in order to defend your position. For some reason, it turns out you don’t. What then do we own with shares?

I don't juggle terms. In my opinion, workers who own shares but earn a living by selling their labor, which is their only commodity, can hardly be classified as petty bourgeois.

"Claims, of course, should be made to the bank, not to the weavers. And then if the game is worth the candle, otherwise the legal costs can cost more than the deposit itself, which disappeared in this bank."
Well, let me ask you further: the weavers had an agreement with the bank, one of the clauses of which was the condition that if the weavers go bankrupt, the bank has the right to take away all their property from them. which will later be implemented by the bank in order to repay the debt to the creditor. that is, you. From your point of view, the return of funds to you by the bank is a completely normal measure from the point of view of social justice, especially since this item was spelled out in your agreement with the bank. And then the bailiffs come to the weavers, and take away their houses and apartments, and they are allowed to go around the world with small children, and they go around the world with an outstretched hand. What do you think these poor weavers will say? They will say that they were treated unfairly and will demand social justice. So right? Here is an example for you that the slogan "You give social justice" is all empty, but the voters are pecking at this bait. Everyone understands social justice in their own way. So it goes.

I myself am not against a socially oriented state, but there are too many speculations on this subject, which have nothing to do with effective social policy.

Tony Blair is an outspoken leftist. And in the end he got kicked out. All leftists are essentially communists, who (if they are not restrained) lead to "take away and divide", and as a result drive the country into poverty. I will not argue much, and God knows how much has already been written like that. I'll give you a couple of thoughts:
So that the people (of those who are poorer) do not take up the pitchfork, the states have programs to support the unemployed - benefits, etc.
And if Belousov's initiative suddenly passed, this would be a serious blow to the investment climate. Until now, there was an impression that a new era of modern capitalism had begun in Russian history, and if such initiatives to “rob those who know how to earn money” suddenly pass, then everyone immediately understands that we have again slipped into the days of dispossession, and invest what we have acquired into the market hard work makes no sense.

naik, in order not to look in your eyes as a completely human person who does not notice anything in the opponent’s arguments with which one can agree, I will say that the proletarian, as soon as he begins to acquire shares (a share in a company that exploits the workers), the process of bourgeoisization begins this proletarian, and in the case when he manages to accumulate capital, the income from which allows him to live the life of a rentier without working for a capitalist, such a proletarian really ceases to be a proletarian, and objectively merges into the ranks of the petty bourgeoisie.

If you find fault with the terminology, it seems that Karl Genrikhovich Marx described it a little differently ... A petty bourgeois is a craftsman. In modern terms, a small entrepreneur selling the product of his labor (and not his labor).
Rentier is a landowner, land-lord. But the proletarian who has accumulated capital, the income from which allows him to live (shares in factories, newspapers and steamships. With the indirect exploitation of the workers of these same enterprises) is already a capitalist. Well, or the larva of the capitalist :)
P.S. It's an interesting conversation you've had here....

Good night, Yury T. Of course, I could have forgotten a lot of what I read in my youth, but an artisan, if he is not a lone handicraftsman, still used the work of apprentices and other hired workers in his craft workshop. That is, he was engaged in the exploitation of someone else's labor, and at the same time he could work for himself. But his hired workers were already engaged in exchanging their labor for some material benefits received from the owner.
A rentier is a landowner who lived on rent received from tenants. But I don’t think it would be a big mistake to consider a rentier not only for those who live on land ownership, and land is one of the forms of capital, but also for those who live with financial capital. Here are the workers who have accumulated capital that allows them not to work, they are also the same rentier capitalists.

Hello Valois :) In fact, the terminology is not very important, the essence is more important. In general, I share your and VM's position, rather than nike's. In the same Marx, everything is somewhat hypertrophied about the capitalist from my point of view. For example, the capitalist does not just exploit the worker, he also risks his capital, spends time organizing work, thinking about what business to do, assessing risks, etc.
And about social justice in developed Western countries, I want to give one real story (I have enough of them. From friends, acquaintances, and from my own experience). So, on the one hand, there is a programmer with good experience, living in Ireland with his wife and two children. He earns about 40 thousand euros net a year. Not a lot of money, but quite a good salary for Ireland. On the other hand, there is an unemployed mother with 5 children, a refugee from Africa. And this Afro-Irish woman receives 50 thousand euros a year clean for all her brethren. And I still don't take into account a bunch of all sorts of privileges like social housing, etc. In my opinion, this is absolutely unfair savagery. And such a similar "social justice" can lead to an absolutely opposite effect. Most working people are very dissatisfied with this.

Can you find out what employees are dissatisfied with? The fact that someone does not work and at the same time receives more of it? :)

not exactly nike. Indeed, in these most developed Western countries, the income tax is quite high. 30% or more on average. And there are constantly increases in this very tax for workers, in particular, so that such aforementioned Afro-Irish people can live comfortably and integrate into society :) Money must be taken from somewhere for such social justice ...

Well, any mother will tell you that raising a child is work. And round the clock and ungrateful. And five is generally hard labor. And where does she get the money to raise them?
And they, by the way, are the future economically active population of the country. Or maybe the country does not need to grow them? Focus only on those who are currently working? And who then will work for the country tomorrow?

• 
  But it could have been otherwise. It could prohibit leaving the country, indicate who he should work with, while indicating that he must work without fail. As it was in the USSR. But no, it gave him a choice, and for this he asks to share his salary in order to feed a black woman with her children. After all, when there is this choice for citizens, this means that the children of a programmer will not necessarily remain in this country and will increase its GDP. And that means you need to feed the Negro children, because they may stay and work here. So much for social justice for a programmer. He is given more freedom - for this he is asked to share with the unemployed, because. the children of a programmer can spend this freedom to the detriment of the state.

You apparently do not want to hear what they are trying to tell you :) You don’t have to pay 50 thousand euros a year to Afro-Irish people, this is too much. Let them pay less. For this is not social justice, but social stupidity.
Freedom of choice, democracy .... By the way, you also have the choice of whether to be a capitalist or a proletarian or someone else. The choice is whether to live in Russia or go somewhere abroad. Nobody limits it.
In any case, this whole discussion does not quite fit into the theme of the investment site. So I bow out :)

>You don't have to pay 50,000 euros a year to African-Irish people, that's too much.

Well, I honestly do not know if this is a lot for Ireland for five. Without knowing their spending, I can’t judge whether it’s a lot or a little. Do you know their spending? Is 10 thousand a year for each child and the mother raising them a lot or a little? Or just for food? What can they afford with this money?

>No one limits it.

Yes! Does not limit by laws :) And the laws are issued by the state. Well, it means that it allows us. Do you consider this freedom?
And let's say you come to my house and I allow you to walk around my house adjoining plot - is this also called freedom?

Well, if you bow out, then happily :)

I agree. a non-working person should never receive more than a working person. This is logical. otherwise why the heck will we work. Only then it is not known where the money for payments will come from. The most interesting thing is that if this programmer has 5 children, no one will just pay him 50,000 euros a year just like these refugees. And this is also, according to Nike, apparently normal. Democracy, after all, you yourself can choose what to do, no one forces you to work there.
Well, here, in Russia, the choice is also given, work or not work, only then suck your paw. In our country, no one will pay money to idlers, so refugees do not rush to us. I don’t like going abroad, they are always waiting for you there. they need laborers. To me, this is a conversation between the blind and the deaf.

They say - how many people, so many opinions. Everyone has their own opinion about "social justice" and what it should be. The state, like the same living organism that has established such rules on its territory (including with regard to the redistribution of benefits), obviously also has its own idea (more precisely, the people who are engaged in this in the state). And everyone defends his opinion, incl. and the state. And everyone is responsible for their "counting", because they act in accordance with their own opinion ("their decision to count in a certain way") and has corresponding consequences, incl. and the state.
The dispute about which opinion is better than the other only leads to aggression, which is a consequence of fear that arises as a reaction to the threat of destruction of that mental picture of the world (or worldview) created by a person as a result of his decisions ("think exactly this way, and not otherwise").
And the funny thing is that this very worldview of a person strongly depends on his point of view, i.e. literally from the point of his location in space, from where he usually looks at all this (whether he is a black woman, or a programmer, or a representative of that state, a capitalist from the Russian Federation or someone else).
It's funny to see how people can be "turned on and excited" by learning that the worldviews of different people can be drastically different, although we pass by such people every day, hundreds or even thousands of people with very different worldviews pass us every day, but we usually do not have time for them business until they open their mouths .. (well, or they tap something on the keyboard).
Just an observation... With respect to all opposing parties,

I don’t remember something that a profession would be imposed in the Union. Rather the opposite.
As for a black woman with 5 children, in my opinion it would be logical not to pay her more than a programmer, but to build a free kindergarten / school for her children and send the black woman to work.

Z.Y. Quite gone from the topic, but I'm sorry, I could not resist.

The problem is that many of those who are now traveling to Western European countries do not go with the intention of working and integrating into European society, but with the intention of living on benefits that will be paid to them in European countries. Often people come from outside the country. where wars rage, but from relatively prosperous regions. In fairness, I must say that they used to go to find work. For example, recently I watched some kind of program about the Turks who worked in Germany at a metallurgical enterprise, honestly earned a German pension. But the fact is that both in Germany and in France (I saw information on this topic in the media) the second or third generation of emigrants do not want to work, and this is the problem. I don’t know, maybe a hidden discriminatory policy is being pursued towards the descendants of emigrants, but it seems to me that these people, for some reason, do not want to integrate into society. Now a new wave of emigration, consisting of people who initially did not want to work, knocking them into gangs (you can also mention areas in European cities where the police are afraid to meddle), who rob passers-by, rape, and at the same time demand that the authorities create the most comfortable conditions for them for living. Of course, this generates negative moods among Europeans, reinforcing nationalist sentiments, and strengthening Nazi sentiments in European society. Europeans refuse to believe that what the current European authorities are doing has anything to do with social justice.

As for the article in the regnum, this publication is not a business one, but another propaganda zombie. So I would listen to them with half an ear.

Very interesting discussion you have established here. Thank you. Interesting points of view. I disagree with almost everything :) But neither my agreement nor my disagreement will in any way affect the management of my own capital. In general, for a capitalist, there is no need to worry about anything like that. Sooner or later, everything will change everywhere and everywhere ... Or it will remain as it is. One way or another, we will adapt to external conditions, driving herds of their money, as long as there is money, to where the grass is juicier and the climate is milder ... I think that at the moment the grass is juicier and the climate is most favorable in Russia and I don’t see a country where political risks would be lower ...

Stormy discussion! Something like: which side to break the egg - sharp or blunt? The essence (truth), as always, is somewhere in the middle.
I had an acquaintance "liberal democrat", he spattered me all over with his saliva, that the USSR is crap, mud, a swamp, people in the USSR are gopota and neediness. I asked him a question: in what country of the world did the population have money lying in glass jars, mattresses, sewn up in fur coats? What about free education and healthcare?
The USSR was "a bone in the goal" in the "West" (now in the "West", most likely, everything will go in the "return" - social programs will be curtailed). The "West" managed to create a layer of beneficiaries and pump money from the pockets of the people into their wallets. I remember very well how in an instant in Sayanogorsk the streets were filled with Japanese cars. People exchanged their money for their dream and began to work even harder to feed themselves and pay for their dream. And only a few have spent money on means of production and capital-raising mechanisms.
And now everything is fine: the USSR spent a lot of effort and money on Central Asia and the Baltic states, and now Russia is spending on itself. I don't see anything wrong with that.
I could be wrong, don't push me too hard.

Oleg Good day. I have been a reader of the site since the winter of this year and have read its accessible version by 90% including comments, only the model pensioner has not read it to the end. I haven’t subscribed to tactics yet, but I think I will definitely subscribe with time. Personally, I saw you for the first time while watching the recording of the Smartlab conference, from there I learned about VO from your words, and I am very sorry that I did not find out about him earlier. You don't tell much about yourself on the site. But the biographies of interesting and wise people are very interesting and informative to read. Could YOU write about yourself in more detail: what happened after you wandered? How did you get into college? what did you do after your studies and how did you make capital for your first investments? Well, and much more about what you see fit to write. I think your biography would be interesting not only for me!!!

Good morning Nikolay. Thank you for your interest in my person and for the kind words ... I am very glad that VO helps. I don't think my life is all that interesting. I was born, wandered and studied... what else can I say... I'm still "wandering", I can't calm down... And I'm still learning. "Systemic education" did not give me anything positive, I rely on reading and observation ... I'm still "cutting" capital, while it is less than I need .... I need to add around and around, there is still a lot of work ... as I finish, maybe I’ll sit down for fiction - there will be something biographical :) ... but I don’t think that it will be interesting to anyone except myself and my relatives ...

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Common mistakes when drawing up an investment business plan

Considering that many organizations often make the same mistakes when developing an investment business plan, it is worth paying attention to the most common of them. We will not touch on any difficult cases, but list a number of the most typical mistakes that beginners can make when they first start writing an investment business plan. We hope that you will take this information into account and avoid such mistakes in your investment business plans.

1. Carefully ensure that the initial data used by you in the calculations correspond to the data indicated in the text part of the investment business plan and tables. Unfortunately, in practice, such situations in investment business plans are not uncommon. Some of the employees have not yet prepared the necessary information and provided outdated information, or some of the indicators were obtained from different sources. Even if it is later possible to establish which information is correct, the investor is unlikely to trust the corrected investment business plan, as he will expect other errors.

2. Carefully choose such parameters as the duration of the horizon and the planning interval. It is very common for an organization to indicate too large intervals in an investment business plan. It's easy to see why this is happening. The fact is that having in the interval not a quarter, but half a year, it is easier to achieve the results that are predicted in the investment business plan. it reliable way to avoid missed deadlines, not to irritate investors, always and in everything to comply with the set pace. And it seems that such agreement with the investment business plan is a guarantee of investors' good will, but in practice everything turns out differently.

A competent investor understands perfectly well why such long intervals arise: the organization is simply not sure that it will be able to achieve the set task in a quarterly period, and therefore stretches it for half a year and beyond. This means that in certain months the business will sag. For example, hoping to compensate for everything with May revenue, an organization may be idle during the winter months. But the lack of funds will lead to adverse consequences. It is possible that the company will simply go bankrupt during the quiet months, since it will not have the funds to support its activities.

In addition, by setting long deadlines in the investment business plan, companies often try to take time with a margin, but for the investor this only means that the organization will not work at full capacity. Financing such a project, of course, is undesirable - the risks are too great.

3. It is necessary to be able to explain to the investor why this or that calculation method is chosen in the investment business plan, especially when it comes to the discount rate, sales volumes and production parameters. It is important to understand that the investor will give preference to a business plan in which all the elements are not chosen by chance, but according to some principle. Projects where everything is made offhand do not particularly inspire confidence.

Surely, you have already noticed that the need to create a business plan or an investment project is a very difficult task. There are many nuances, features of calculations, methods and approaches, which not every manager manages to take into account and consider. However, there is always a way out. If you cannot draw up an investment business plan on your own, then you should entrust this task to professionals - the information and analytical company VVS. Experienced specialists will easily develop an investment business plan of the highest complexity for organizations of any direction. The company has 19 years of experience in providing commodity market statistics as information for strategic decisions that reveal market demand. Main client categories: exporters, importers, manufacturers, participants in commodity markets and B2B business services.

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Quality in our business is, first of all, the accuracy and completeness of information. When you make a decision based on data that is, to put it mildly, wrong, how much will your loss be worth? When making important strategic decisions, it is necessary to rely only on reliable statistical information. But how can you be sure that this information is correct? It can be checked! And we will give you such an opportunity.

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For some, attracting investments is the only way to bring their project to life, for others it is the transition to the next stage in the process of growth and development of the company. In any case, whatever the purpose of obtaining external support, it will be necessary to prepare thoroughly for this. Therefore, the example of a business plan for an investment project that we have given can be quite useful, which will help achieve the goal. You can easily find many other options in our extensive catalog.

A little about investments

By and large, an investment attraction plan is a set of some documents that are designed to acquaint a potential investor with a project from the planning stage to key point- making a profit.

In a broad sense, investing is the investment of capital in any area. For example, in production, science, trade or research activities. Often, potential grant seekers are focused on obtaining funds that will help them re-equip their enterprise, open a new production line, and expand their sphere of influence.

Sources of such funding may include:

• the enterprise itself;
• state;
• banks;
• foreign companies;
• domestic large holdings.

The principle of creating a business plan for a project, among other things, should take into account who exactly your request is addressed to.

What is the essence of a business plan

It is no secret that the business plan itself is a document whose purpose is to highlight such points:



In addition, it must certainly represent a long-term perspective for the further development of the enterprise. A potential investor must clearly understand why exactly you are asking for money, how much you want to receive, and what benefit awaits him personally in all this. Without such a well-prepared picture of the development of events, it is, unfortunately, not possible to obtain the desired capital.

What to look out for

Using the example of the investment project business plan we proposed, a variant of which can be, we will try to highlight the main points that should be taken into account when drawing up such a document. It is important to note that we do not propose to analyze a specific enterprise, but, on the contrary, we offer a unified scheme under which you can “fit” any idea that requires the attraction of investors' funds.

So, please note that the style of presentation of information in your document must be strictly concise, structured, competent. The text should be well perceived by absolutely any reader, and not just a specialist in a narrow field. All parts of the plan must follow a logical connection, and the information and data must be true.

When drawing up a plan, adhere to the following principles:

• reliability and accuracy of information;
• a sufficient number of necessary indicators and parameters;
• use of sensitive information;
• even distribution of information throughout the plan;
• using correct wording and avoiding controversial statements.

Glittered facts are not very good helpers: their use can bring doubt to you personally and your company as a whole.

It should immediately be noted that the structure of the business plan is not regulated by any regulatory documents, but it is still necessary to adhere to the unspoken rules. For different projects, the outline of your plan and its scope may vary.

It starts on the title page. It usually contains information of the following order:

• compilers;
• time and place of compilation;
• title.

Summary

Business from scratch - how to write a business plan: Video