House projects / 11.03.2022

Financial planning in a crisis. Successful strategies in times of crisis. From targets

Most business planning work deals with the preparation of a business plan under the normal conditions of an enterprise. The most common option is the formation of a business plan to attract investment. Anti-crisis business planning is considered much less often, but it is necessary no less often, and a business plan in a crisis is very different from planning routine work.

In a crisis situation, the company's management does not have time to work out in detail each item of the plan, all decisions must be made within a strictly limited time frame. Hence the first requirement for the process of developing an anti-crisis business plan is the speed of preparation. At the same time, the thoughtfulness and rationality of the prescribed provisions should exceed the plan drawn up in a typical situation.

The preparation of an anti-crisis business plan should begin with an analysis of the causes of the current crisis. In fact, their neutralization is the first goal of anti-crisis management. The sooner this process begins, the faster and easier the organization will be able to overcome the crisis. The main requirements for the diagnostic process are listed below: representatives of all departments of the enterprise should take part in identifying the causes of the current crisis and drawing conclusions; in the analysis, attention should be paid to all revealed facts, including those that seem insignificant; diagnostics should be prompt; for each identified bottleneck, it is necessary to formulate (at least indicative) solutions.

After the diagnostics, a report should be drawn up, revealing the causes of the crisis. You should not make this document too voluminous - it is enough to outline the main trends, which will be enough to understand the current situation, set goals that will allow you to get out of the crisis, and develop operational decisions (how management will achieve goals). The result of the planned actions depends on how clearly, accessible, and on time the goals are formulated. It is important to correctly convey the formulated goals to those people who will be involved in their implementation. The goals must be achievable, and it is very important not to allow either underestimation or overestimation of requirements.

Depending on the situation in which the enterprise is located, it is necessary to decide for what period a business plan is drawn up. A feature of anti-crisis business planning is that the plan should be drawn up for a minimum period. This does not mean that anti-crisis business planning cannot be long-term. It's just that in a crisis the plan will have to be reviewed more often than in normal business conditions. Thus, the implementation of the overall strategy will be distributed over several small periods. At the same time, intermediate plans can and should be adjusted, while the strategy must remain constant. As A. Daile notes, “in difficult times, the expected values should be determined monthly” Daile A. The practice of controlling. - M .: Finance and Statistics, 2003. - S. 52 .. Of course, following a single goal should not be brought to the point of absurdity - it is quite possible that external and internal conditions change to such an extent that it becomes easy to focus on the originally set task unacceptable. Quite often in the works on business planning there is an opinion that in Russian conditions the planning process is complicated too quickly and often changing business environment conditions. A. Daile writes: “Planning is necessary just when a lot is changing. If everything remains the way you are used to, it is enough to simply transfer past trends to the future. Of course, with the help of planning it is impossible to prevent the occurrence of deviations, to predict unforeseen situations, or to direct past events to the line of planned development. But the advantages of planning lie elsewhere: by comparing the actual indicators with the planned ones, we get the opportunity to intervene in what is happening, regulate it, and provide corrective action in order to keep the enterprise on the planned course. If plans had not been developed, it would not have been possible to see how much current events deviate from what they originally wanted to receive. Deviations are signals that allow for improved regulation and should be interpreted from a meaningful point of view as a help or a service function that allows additional learning” Ibid. - S. 53.

When the causes of the crisis are identified, strategic and operational goals are formulated on their basis, we can assume that the company's management is ready to draw up a business plan. One or two people should be directly involved in its development.

Drawing up a business plan in this case means the systematization and structuring of information obtained at all levels of management, and not an exhaustive set of works, including independent search and data processing.

After identifying the causes of the onset of the crisis and setting a strategic goal, the management of the enterprise should appoint qualified employees who will be involved in the formation of a business plan. Their task, first of all, should be to raise questions for managers of structural divisions and draw up a business plan, and with the active participation of colleagues who provided them with the analyzed information. Thus, planning is carried out by a small number of employees, but representatives of all strategically important departments take part in it. It is better for managers to be given some freedom of action - they should be able to make their own proposal. It is worth telling employees not how they should do something, but agreeing with them what they should achieve. Such a business plan will turn out to be more versatile and creative, and, therefore, the result of its implementation will be the best.

For whatever purpose a business plan is drawn up, first of all it is necessary for the company's management and middle management. The fact is that during the analysis and written presentation of information, the planned actions are rethought and their optimization takes place. As V.P. Savchuk, “... the plan is the end result. However, the process of its development is valuable in itself. First, planning forces the financial manager to consider the cumulative effect of investment decisions along with the results of financial decisions. Secondly, planning forces the financial manager to study events that may hinder the success of the company and stock up on strategies that are considered as a fallback response in case of unexpected circumstances. Savchuk V.P. Financial management of enterprises: practical issues with the analysis of business situations. - Kyiv: Publishing House "Maximum", 2001. - S. 87 .. The anti-crisis business plan should first of all help the company's managers in the implementation of their functions. Hence the next requirement for it: all information must be clearly structured and presented in the most convenient form for perception. The more calculations are done in the enterprise and the more simulation models are used, the less transparent planning becomes. Thus, it is not the number of business plan pages that matters, but their content. The general requirements are the same as in normal conditions - accessibility and simplicity of presentation, sufficiency, reliability and reliability of information.

In a crisis, this requirement takes on special significance due to the extreme conditions of activity and the lack of time to make a decision.

Considering the importance of management decisions made in a crisis, failure to implement a business plan can lead to a breakdown in the overall strategy of anti-crisis management. Therefore, a competent business planning system plays a decisive role in the anti-crisis management system Solntsev I.V. Formation and implementation of a business plan to bring the enterprise out of a crisis // Management in Russia and abroad. - 2006. - No. 5. - S. 12 ..

STRATEGIC PLANNING AT THE ENTERPRISE DURING THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS

K. E. Schesnyak,

doctoral student of the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (Moscow),

PhD in Economics

A. Ya. Bystryakov,

Head of the Department of Finance and Credit, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (Moscow), Doctor of Economics [email protected]

The article discusses the specifics of strategic planning at an enterprise in a financial and economic crisis, examines the stages of strategic planning, and proposes the main indicator for a strategic goal in a crisis - the value of the company.

Key words: strategic toning, financial and economic crisis, enterprise management.

UDC 338; BBK 65.050

Problems in the global financial system arose against the background of the uncontrolled pumping of the world economic system with banknotes not backed by commodity production, issued primarily by the United States, as well as Japan and the EU, which caused the spread of negative real lending rates around the world. A failure in the financial system caused a drop in prices for basic resources - oil, metal, products of the chemical industry, agriculture, etc.

Now almost all countries of the world are in a difficult situation, and in the context of globalization, world problems will constantly influence the course of Russian events, aggravated by specific internal problems.

At the same time, in a crisis, there are additional opportunities for obtaining high incomes from investing in real estate. As a result of the impact of the economic crisis, the cost of housing in Russia and many other countries has dropped significantly. At the same time, this drop in prices in many cases is not related to the influence of fundamental factors that determine the demand for real estate in the long term, which makes it possible to find undervalued assets with significant upside potential. At the same time, the return on investment in such assets can significantly exceed the average values during periods of stable economic growth.

Thus, the key conditions for effective investment in a crisis are the presence of strongly

GDP, in % to the same period of the previous year Inflation Fig.1. Dynamics of GDP and inflation in Russia in 2007-2008

Source: Rosstat

102007 202007 302007 402007 102008 202008 302008 402008

a depreciating asset with significant growth potential, as well as choosing the best moment to acquire it at the lowest price.

During the global financial crisis in Russia, there is a slowdown in economic growth. Figure 1 shows the dynamics of the gross domestic product and inflation in Russia in 2007-2008.

As can be seen from fig. 1, since the 1st quarter of 2008, Russia has seen a slowdown in GDP growth - from 9.5% to 6.2%. Inflation in Russia grew throughout 2007 and early 2008. In the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, the rate of price growth slowed down somewhat, but remains at a fairly high level.

As you know, market conditions depend on many macroeconomic factors. The market poses the problems of survival for business entities, ensuring the continuity of their growth. The solution to these problems related to the creation and implementation of the company's competitive advantages is based on the development and implementation of appropriate strategies.

Various factors influence the nature of the market recovery after crises. In addition to the general state of the economy (GDP dynamics, inflation, unemployment), such indicators as household incomes, mortgage interest rates, etc. are of significant importance.

Thus, during a crisis, strategic planning creates the conditions for the emergence of a number of important

predetermining conditions for companies, provides a basis for decision making. A clear statement of the company's goals helps to determine the most appropriate ways to achieve them and helps to reduce risk. By making informed planning decisions, the company reduces the risk of misdirection due to erroneous or unreliable information about the external situation. Strategic planning defines the organization's strategic goals. The definition and implementation of strategies belongs to the category of complex and time-consuming management tasks that require not only a change in the existing stereotypes of management, but also a certain preparedness of managers who make decisions on the company's future development.

Strategic planning is a process of practical activity of management subjects. It allows avoiding major errors in assessing possible alternatives to market dynamics, the behavior of competitors and partners in the domestic and foreign markets. All this is formalized into a targeted medium-term directive document containing a system of measures agreed upon in terms of time, resources and executors that ensure the achievement of the set program. The influence of factors of instability of the macro environment, causing constant changes in the market situation, determines the continuous adjustment and refinement of the program.

It must be emphasized that strategic planning should be based on strategic milestones that need to be achieved in the future, and proceed from the premise that the main threats are outside the company, and the company can anticipate dangers and threats before undesirable events occur and minimize losses if they cannot be prevented. The strategic planning system does not assume that the future must certainly be better than the past, therefore, in strategic planning, an important place is given to the analysis of the organization's prospects, which allows you to identify trends, dangers, opportunities that can change existing trends.

The vector of progressive development of the company should be directed to strategic objectives in order to follow the targets, and ensure the necessary position of the company in the market with timely adjustments. In this regard, operational planning is a continuation and concretization of strategic planning.

The two main factors that determine the specifics of the strategy are:

1) the conditions of the industry and competition, which are a reflection of the environment:

2) the internal situation and competitive position of the company.

Industry and competition analysis broadly covers the entire environment or macro-environment of the company, while situation analysis considers the immediate sphere of existence, or the micro-environment of the company.

Managers must have a keen sense of the strategic aspects of the company's macro and micro environment in order to have a strategic vision, be able to define the main goals and form a successful strategy. Lack of such understanding greatly increases the likelihood of developing a strategic plan that is inappropriate for the situation, does not create prospects for gaining competitive advantage, and most likely does not improve the company's performance.

When analyzing the position of a company, you should focus on five questions:

1. How well is the current strategy working?

2. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the company, what are the opportunities for it and what are the dangers?

3. Are the company's costs and prices competitive?

4. Is the company's competitive position strong?

5. What are the strategic challenges facing the company?

Strategy evaluation should be carried out, on the one hand,

on the basis of qualitative characteristics (completeness, internal consistency, relevance to the situation), on the other hand, the best evidence of the effectiveness of the company's strategy follows from the study of financial performance indicators, as well as indicators characterizing the results of the strategy implementation. In particular, indicators of the company's activity can be:

Place of the company in the industry in terms of its market share:

Change in the company's profitability, comparison with competitors:

Trends in the company's net profit and return on investment:

The most important stage in the analysis of the company's situation is the systematic assessment of the strength of its competitive position in comparison with the position of its closest competitors. As a rule, the competitiveness of a company should be based on its strengths and on the support of those areas in which the company is competitively vulnerable. In addition, those areas in which the strength of the company is opposed by the weakness of competitors are the best potential direction of activity.

The main components of strategic planning: defining the mission of the organization. This process consists in establishing the meaning of the existence of the company, its purpose, role and place in a market economy. It characterizes the direction in business that firms are guided by based on market needs, the nature of consumers, product features and the presence of competitive advantages.

Formulation of goals and objectives. To describe the nature and level of business claims inherent in a particular type of business, the terms - goals - and<задачи>\ Goals and objectives involve determining the level of customer service. They determine the motivation of people working in the firm. The target picture should have at least four types of targets: Quantitative targets: Qualitative targets: Strategic targets: Tactical targets, etc. Goals for the lower levels of the firm are seen as objectives.

Analysis and assessment of the external and internal environment. Environmental analysis is usually considered the initial process of strategic management, as it provides the basis both for defining the mission and goals of the firm and for developing a strategy of behavior that allows the firm to fulfill its mission and achieve its goals.

One of the key roles of any management is to maintain a balance in the interaction of the organization with the environment. Each organization is involved in the following processes: obtaining resources from the external environment (input): turning resources into a product (transformation): transferring the product to the external environment (output). Management is designed to provide a balance of input and output. As soon as this balance is disturbed in an organization, it embarks on the path of dying. The modern market has dramatically increased the importance of the exit process in maintaining this balance. This is precisely reflected in the fact that the first block in the structure of strategic management is the block of environmental analysis.

Analysis of the environment involves the study of its three components: the macro environment: the immediate environment: the internal environment of the organization.

The analysis of the external environment (macro- and immediate environment) is aimed at finding out what the company can count on if it successfully conducts work, and what complications can await it if it fails to avert negative attacks in time, which can give her the environment. The analysis of the macro environment includes the study of the influence of the economy, legal regulation and management, political processes, the natural environment and resources, the social and cultural components of society, the scientific, technical and technological development of society, infrastructure, etc.

The immediate environment is analyzed according to the following main components: buyers, suppliers, competitors, labor market. An analysis of the internal environment reveals those opportunities, the potential that a company can count on in a competitive struggle in the process of achieving its goals. An analysis of the internal environment also makes it possible to better understand the goals of the organization, to more correctly formulate the mission, that is, to determine the meaning and direction of the company. It is extremely important to always remember that the organization not only produces products for the environment, but also provides an opportunity for its members to exist, giving them work, providing them with the opportunity to participate in profits, providing them with social guarantees, etc.

The internal environment is analyzed in the following areas: personnel potential: organization of management: finances: marketing: organizational structure, etc.

Development and analysis of strategic alternatives, choice of strategy. Strategy development is carried out at the highest level

management. At this stage of decision-making, it is necessary to evaluate alternative ways for the firm to operate and choose the best options to achieve its goals. The firm faces four main strategic alternatives: limited growth, growth, reduced growth, and a combination of these strategies. Limited growth is followed by most organizations in developed countries. Leaders are less likely to choose a downsizing strategy. In it, the level of goals pursued is set below that achieved in the past. For many firms, downsizing can mean a path to rationalization and reorientation of operations. Strategic choices are influenced by a variety of factors: risk (a factor in the life of the firm): knowledge of past strategies; reaction of equity holders, which often limit management's flexibility in choosing a strategy; time factor, depending on the choice of the right moment. Decision-making on strategic issues can be carried out in different directions: ¿bottom-up-, ¿top-down-, in the interaction of the two above-mentioned directions (the strategy is developed in the process of interaction between top management, planning service and operational units). Forming the strategy of the company as a whole is becoming increasingly important. This concerns the priority of the problems to be solved, the definition of the structure of the firm, the validity of capital investments, the coordination and integration of strategies.

Thus, the main advantage of strategic planning is the greater degree of validity of planned indicators, the greater likelihood of the planned scenarios for the development of events.

The current pace of change in the economy is so high that strategic planning seems to be the only way to formally predict future problems and opportunities. It provides the top management of the company with the means to create a plan for the long term, provides a basis for decision-making, helps reduce risk in decision-making, ensures the integration of the goals and objectives of all structural divisions and performers of the company.

However, strategic planning does not and cannot, by virtue of its essence, give a detailed description of the picture of the future. What it can give is a qualitative description of the state to which the company should strive in the future, what position it can and should take in the market and in business in order to answer the main question - will the company survive or not in the competition: strategic planning does not have a clear algorithm for the preparation and implementation of the plan. His descriptive theory boils down to a particular philosophy or ideology of doing business. Therefore, specific tools largely depend on the personal qualities of a particular manager, and in general, strategic planning is a symbiosis of intuition and art of top management, the manager's ability to lead the company to strategic goals.

Strategic plans must be designed to not only remain consistent over long periods of time, but also be flexible enough to be modified and refocused as needed. The overall strategic plan should be seen as a program that guides the firm's activities over an extended period of time, recognizing that a conflicting and ever-changing business and social environment makes constant adjustments inevitable.

Correction of the strategic plan is necessary only in cases of a significant revision of the company's development goals or an unpredictable change, primarily in external conditions, as a result of which the originally set development goals may disorientate management.

A certain alternative to adjusting the strategic plan is to reduce the planning horizon. Moreover, this is justified not only in the case of a high probability of an unpredictable change in external conditions, but also in general for low-performing or financially unstable companies. As practice shows, companies that are doing well, slightly change the rules of decision-making and the decisions themselves within one or another planning horizon. At the same time, companies with low profitability are more inclined to look for new areas of development, which inevitably leads to a revision of previously adopted plans and tasks.

Thus, the lower the profitability of the company and the more difficult its financial position, the shorter the planning horizon should be or the more frequently adjustments should be made to previously approved strategic plans.

Given that the accuracy of the forecast decreases as its time interval expands, with the expansion of the planning horizon, the probability of 100% hitting the approved targets decreases. Management can be required to fully implement (or at least implement with minimal deviations) operational plans, but with annual (and even more so with long-term) planning, the deviation of actual results from benchmarks becomes inevitable. Under such conditions, it is difficult to correctly assess the compliance of the actual results obtained with the goals that were set for the company when approving the strategic plan. Therefore, a necessary condition for a comprehensive assessment of the company's performance is the correct determination of the composition of benchmarks and standards for the planning period.

The task is to single out among the many indicators (positions, articles) the main ones, the implementation of which should be mandatory for management. The higher the financial results of the company, the more importance should be given to planning and control, the more benchmarks should be used.

We propose to consider the growth of the company's value as the main task facing its management. In this case, strategic planning should include, firstly, tasks to increase the value for the planning period; secondly, planned indicators for the main factors (directions) that affect the growth of the company's value.

As for the increase in the value of the company for the planned period, the formulation of this problem (and the corresponding calculation) should be based on the requirements for return on invested capital presented by the owners. In this case, the invested capital is understood as the cost of capital at the beginning of the planning period, and the return is calculated as the sum of capitalization growth and income received during the planning period. As a rule, the establishment of certain indicators of return on capital reflects both the subjective expectations of investors and objective comparisons with the return on other financial instruments (including the risk component).

Achieving the set goal of capitalization growth depends on a number of both economic and non-economic (political, etc.) factors. Accordingly, in order to achieve the planned growth in the company's value, planned targets are set for the main indicators that affect its value and depend on its management (taking into account the predicted impact of non-economic factors). As a rule, such indicators include growth in business volume (revenue, investments, etc.), return on capital, as well as indicators of the maximum level of debt, expenses, etc.

Literature

1. Ansoff I. Strategic management. - M.: Economics, 1995.

2. Keynes D.M. General theory of employment of interest and money. - Internet resource. Access mode: http://www.gumfak.ru/econom_html/keins/keins06. shtml

3. Korotkov E., Kuzmina E. Genesis of management// Problems of theory and practice of management. - 2006. - No. 1.

4. Semelkin V.Yu. Planning as a factor in the effective functioning of an enterprise // Economics and Management. - 2007. - No. 5 (31).

5. Syrbu A.N. Analysis of the position of the company in the formation of strategy // Economics and management. - 2007. - No. 5 (31).

6. Economic theory. Electronic textbook. - Internet resource. Access mode: http://el.tfi.uz/ru/et/gl14.html

Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.

Section 1. Strategic aspects of the functioning of the enterprise

in times of crisis

1.1. Content and principles of strategic planning

at an enterprise in a crisis

Currently, domestic companies are operating in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, which has had a negative impact on the activities of many sectors of the economy associated with the globalization of the world economic space.

The process of strategic planning is the forecasting of the socio-economic development of the enterprise, the search for new opportunities, the choice of strategies.

In a crisis, the strategic planning process corrects the existing development strategy of the enterprise, reduces planning time, and excludes various opportunities in order to preserve the integrity of the company and the possibility of its survival.

The main tool of strategic planning is the process of forming a financial strategy, interpreting it as a concept of creating and using a competitive advantage, covering the formation of finances and their planning to ensure the financial stability of an enterprise.

Strategic planning, first of all, involves determining the competitive position of the enterprise in the market and in the industry.

In modern conditions, the growth rate of consumer requirements for the quality of goods (services) is growing exponentially, and competitiveness tends to depend on and spread to the immediate environment of the enterprise.

Therefore, strategic planning should be carried out by the enterprise together with its suppliers and partners, which will create the basis for the formation and maintenance of competitive advantages in a crisis.

The logical chain of the process of defining key competencies, consisting of five main blocks, is shown in Figure 1.1

Figure 1.1 - The process of identifying key competencies (QC) of the enterprise

What are the goals of developing the corresponding object of strategic planning in a crisis?;

What should be the sequence of the process of developing managerial decisions in the form of strategic forecasts, programs and plans, in a crisis?;

What should be the strategic forecasts, programs and plans themselves, and what requirements should they meet?;

What methodological approaches to solving what problems of strategic planning should be used in a crisis?

The solution of any problems of management, and, consequently, of strategic planning, in a crisis has certain principles.

Пoд принципами cтpaтeгичecкoгo плaниpoвaния пoнимaют yпopядoчeннyю пocлeдoвaтeльнocть, взaимocoглacoвaннocть и oбocнoвaннocть пpoцeдyp, cвязaнныx c peшeниeм любoй пpoблeмы cтpaтeгичecкoгo плaниpoвaния в условиях кризиса, a тaкжe oпpeдeлeниe иcxoднoгo пyнктa, oттaлкивaяcь oт кoтopoгo oни дoлжны peшaтьcя и кoтopoмy дoлжeн пoдчинятьcя вecь пpoцecc плaнoвoй paбoты.

Strategic planning provides the basis for all management decisions.

The functions of organization, motivation and control are focused on the development of strategic plans.

Without taking advantage of strategic planning, organizations as a whole and individuals will be deprived of a clear way to assess the purpose and direction of the corporate enterprise.

The strategic planning process provides the basis for managing members of the organization, which enables shareholders and company management to determine the direction and pace of business development, outline global market trends, understand what organizational and structural changes should occur in the company, in a crisis, what is its advantage what tools it needs for successful development in the future.

Until recently, strategic planning was the prerogative of large international concerns. However, the situation began to change, and, as surveys show, more and more companies representing medium-sized businesses are beginning to engage in strategic planning.

Thus, we can conclude that strategic planning in a crisis is the most important tool that allows you to adjust the prospects for the further development of a company in a crisis, make the process of functioning in a crisis manageable and creates an opportunity to determine the possibilities of overcoming the financial crisis.

1.2. Approaches to the process of developing an enterprise development strategy

in times of crisis

The process of developing an enterprise development strategy in a global crisis can consist of the following steps:

Definition of short-term goals of the organization;

Analysis of the environment, which includes the collection of information, analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the company, as well as its potential opportunities based on the available external and internal information in a crisis;

Choice of strategy, special attention to financial strategy;

Implementation of strategic decisions;

Evaluation and control of implementation;

Strategic analysis in times of crisis is the main element of strategic planning.

This analysis acts as a strategic management tool, with the help of which the company's management identifies and evaluates its activities in order to maintain liquidity and financial stability, using all of its most profitable and promising areas. The main method of analysis is the construction of two-dimensional matrices. With the help of such matrices, productions, departments, processes, products are compared according to the relevant criteria.

There are three approaches to the formation of matrices:

1. A tabular approach, in which the values of varying parameters increase as they move away from the column of the name of these parameters. In this case, the portfolio analysis is carried out from the upper left corner to the lower right.

2. The coordinate approach, in which the values of the variable parameters increase with distance from the point of intersection of the coordinates.

Portfolio analysis here is conducted from the lower left corner to the upper right.

3. A logical approach, in which the portfolio is analyzed from the lower right corner to the upper left. Such a campaign is most widely used in foreign practice.

4. Environmental analysis is necessary in the implementation of strategic analysis, because. its result is the receipt of information on the basis of which estimates are made regarding the current position of the enterprise in the market.

Environmental analysis involves the study of its three components:

External environment;

immediate environment;

The internal environment of the organization.

Analysis of the external environment includes the study of the impact of the crisis on the economy as a whole, legal regulation and management, political processes, natural environment and resources, social and cultural components of society, scientific, technical and technological development of society, infrastructure, etc. in terms of impact on the company's activities.

The immediate environment is analyzed according to the following main components: buyers, suppliers, competitors, labor market.

An analysis of the internal environment reveals those opportunities, the potential that a company can count on in a crisis in the process of achieving its goals.

The internal environment is analyzed in the following areas:

Personnel of the company, their potential, qualifications, interests, etc.; management organization;

Production, including organizational, operational and technical and technological characteristics and research and development; company finances;

Marketing;

Organizational culture.

Block process		Executed subprocesses	Tool used
1 Strategic analysis		Comprehensive analysis of the external and internal environment;	Steiner's product-market model. STEP analysis of the macro environment. Porter's "5 forces of industry competition" model. Campbell's model "Industry Resource Analysis", SWOT-analysis.
2 Strategic forecasting		Forecasting trends in the development of the situation; scenario development	Heuristic: "Delphi", PATTERN, MAI, OTSP, SSO, TMP. Economic and mathematical: Brown, Holt, Holt-Winters models, evolution method for two- and three-parameter models, MAF method, harmonic weights method, linear time series models, correlation, regression, factor analysis
4 Strategic choice	Formation of a set of alternative strategies; selection of the most effective strategy			Correlation SWOT analysis, product life cycle model, portfolio analysis models Calculation of financial indicators of alternative strategies
4 Strategic controlling	Strategy implementation planning, control and adjustment			Balanced Scorecard (BSC). Budgeting. Designing organizational change. Planning change by goals

This toolkit is based on the theory of general competition, not allowing mutual support, which contradicts the main postulate of modern management - partnership and cooperation. There is also a deeper approach in the concept of strategic planning, which is based on the principle of "forecast-strategy-plan" (Figure 1.2) i.e. from the standpoint of building models of "ideal enterprise" and "ideal product", reflecting the strategic goals of the development of the enterprise.

Figure 1.2 - Tools for building a strategic planning system at an enterprise in a crisis

The "ideal enterprise" model is a set of specific parameters for industrial, financial, commercial activities, information technology, corporate culture; "ideal product" - functionality, ergonomics and safety, quality, breadth of assortment, exclusivity, service.

The above approach is distinguished by a more complete coverage of all elements of the strategic planning system and its components, which ensures the effectiveness of its application in the process of managing an enterprise in a crisis, as it is focused on achieving long-term competitive advantages.

At the same time, a special role is assigned to the process of ensuring the quality of products at the stage of product development and pre-production, which meets the requirements of the TQM management system implemented at domestic enterprises during their certification according to the requirements of international standards ISO 9004–2001.

In general, the review of the data allows us to conclude that the implementation of the set of tools listed in Table 1.1 and the above approach to strategic planning allow the use of more advanced tools in a crisis.

According to M. Porter, there are three main strategies that are universal and applicable to any competitive force.

It's a cost advantage, differentiation, focus. Each of the main strategies requires the selection of a specific kind of economic resources and skills, as well as certain managerial decisions. Along with advantages in a competitive position, general strategies involve certain risks.

The financial strategy of the enterprise and the set of rules and techniques corresponding to it is aimed primarily at the effective implementation of the financial potential of the enterprise.

The expediency of developing a financial strategy arises, for example, in conditions of steadily growing demand, when there is practically no competition in any industry. A review of the financial strategy should always be carried out when the risk of bankruptcy is likely to increase.

The basic strategy of competition, which is the basis of the competitive behavior of the enterprise in the market and describes the scheme for providing advantages over competitors, is the central point in the strategic orientation of the enterprise. All subsequent marketing activities of the enterprise in a crisis depend on its correct choice.

Unlike tactical actions in the market, the strategy of competition should be aimed at providing an advantage over competitors in times of crisis.

Thus, the concept of typical strategies is based on the idea that each strategy is based on a competitive advantage and that in order to achieve it in a crisis, a company must justify and choose its strategy taking into account the factors of its own competitiveness.

In terms of cost leadership strategy, there are many ways to reduce costs while maintaining industry average quality.

However, some ways to reduce costs are associated with moving along the experience curve, increasing the scale of production to achieve maximum savings.

The philosophy of economies of scale in production is based on the so-called experience curve. It was proposed in 1926 when, through empirical analysis, it was found that the cost of producing a unit of output falls by 20% every time output doubles.

According to this theory, increasing the market share of the company is emphasized, since this allows you to increase production volumes and move down the curve towards lower production costs. This is how you can achieve a higher level of income and profit margins and, consequently, greater competitiveness of the enterprise in the market in a crisis.

Moreover, the crisis has both negative and positive aspects. For example, in the face of a decline in the competitiveness of firms in the market, a more financially well-off organization can organize a strategy of greater market coverage by offering existing buyers in a crisis more favorable conditions, which will allow it to gain additional competitive advantages.

Understanding the needs of the customer is central to this strategy.

The firm needs to know what is valued by customers, provide exactly the required set of qualities and, accordingly, set the price.

If the firm is successful, then a certain group of buyers in this market segment will not consider products offered by other companies as a substitute for its products. The firm thus creates a group of loyal customers, almost a mini-monopoly.

A successful differentiation strategy reduces the severity of competition, which is often observed in times of crisis. If suppliers raise their prices, "loyal" buyers with little price sensitivity are more likely to accept the final price increase offered by the manufacturer of the exclusive product.

Moreover, customer loyalty acts as a kind of barrier for new manufacturers to enter the market and replace this product with other similar products. However, the differentiation strategy is not a risk-free strategy.

First, if the basis of differentiation, that is, what a firm wants to be different from others, can be easily copied, other firms will be perceived as offering the same product or service. Then competition in this industry is likely to turn into price competition.

Second, firms that focus on broad differentiation may be marginalized by firms that focus on only one particular segment.

Thirdly, if the strategy is based on a process of continuous product improvement (with the goal of always being one step ahead of its competitors), then the company risks simply being at a disadvantage, as it will bear the maximum costs of research and development, while competitors will use the results of its activities in their own interests.

Fourth, if the firm ignores the costs of differentiation, then raising prices will not increase profits.

A focus strategy involves choosing a narrow segment or group of segments in an industry and meeting the needs of that segment more effectively than competitors serving a broader market segment can do.

The focus strategy can be applied by both the cost leader serving a given segment and the differentiator that meets the special requirements of a market segment in a way that allows for high pricing. So firms can compete broadly (serving multiple segments) or focus narrowly (targeted action). Both options for the focus strategy are based on the differences between the target and the rest of the industry segments.

It is these differences that can be called the reason for the formation of a segment that is poorly served by competitors who carry out large-scale activities and are not able to adapt to the specific needs of this segment. A cost-focused firm may outperform a consumer-oriented firm by its ability to eliminate "excesses" that are not valued in that segment.

Moreover, broad differentiation and focused differentiation are often confused. The difference between the two is mainly that a broadly differentiated company bases its strategy on widely valued differentiators, while a focused manufacturer seeks out a segment with specific needs and satisfies them much better.

The obvious danger of the focus strategy is that the target segment may disappear for any reason. In addition, some other firms will enter this segment, surpassing this firm in focus, and lure buyers, or for some reason (for example, tastes will change, demographic changes will occur), the segment will shrink.

Following one or another typical strategy makes it necessary for the firm to have certain restrictions (barriers) that would make it difficult for competitors to imitate (copy) the strategies chosen by it. Since these barriers are not insurmountable, a firm is usually required to offer its competitors a changing goal through constant investment and innovation.

For all the distinctness and diversity of M. Porter's typical strategies, they nevertheless have common elements: both strategies require entrepreneurs to pay great attention to both product quality and cost control.

F. Kotler offers his own classification of competitive strategies based on the market share owned by an enterprise (firm).

1. The strategy of the "leader". The “leading” company of the product market occupies a dominant position, and this is also recognized by its competitors. The leading firm has a set of strategic alternatives at its disposal:

Expansion of primary demand, aimed at discovering new consumers of the product, expanding the scope of its use, increasing the one-time use of the product, which is usually advisable to apply at the initial stages of the product life cycle

A defensive strategy that an innovator firm adopts to protect its market share from its most dangerous competitors;

An offensive strategy, most often consisting in increasing profitability by maximizing the experience effect. However, as practice shows, there is a certain limit, above which a further increase in market share becomes unprofitable;

A demarketing strategy that involves reducing one's market share in order to avoid accusations of monopoly.

Challenger strategy. A firm that does not occupy a dominant position can attack the leader, that is, challenge him. The purpose of this strategy is to take the place of the leader. In this case, the solution of two most important tasks becomes key: choosing a springboard for attacking the leader and assessing the possibilities of his reaction and defense.

Follow-the-leader strategy. A "follow-the-leader" is a competitor with a small market share that chooses adaptive behavior by aligning its decisions with those made by competitors. Such a strategy is most typical for small businesses, so let's take a closer look at possible strategic alternatives that provide small businesses with the most acceptable level of profitability.

Creative market segmentation. A small firm should only focus on certain market segments in which it can better exercise its competence or have greater agility to avoid major competitors.

Use R&D effectively. Since small enterprises cannot compete with large firms in the field of fundamental research, they must focus R&D on improving technologies in order to reduce costs.

Stay small. Successful small businesses focus on profit rather than increasing sales or market share, and they tend to specialize rather than diversify.

Strong leader. The influence of the manager in such firms goes beyond formulating a strategy and communicating it to employees, covering also the management of the current activities of the company.

specialist strategy. The "specialist" focuses mainly on only one or several market segments, i.e., he is more interested in the qualitative side of the market share.

Based on the reviewed material, we draw the following conclusions:

1. The process of substantiation and formation of the goals of the strategic plan for the development of an enterprise in a crisis is influenced by the value system of its top management, within which it is advisable to single out the internal and external value systems of top managers.

2. In the process of determining the system of goals of the strategic plan for the development of an enterprise in a crisis, two key points must be taken into account.

Firstly, any goal characterizes the direction of development of the enterprise in a certain period of time, which is its qualitative characteristic.

Secondly, the goal defines the desired state, which should be achieved by the enterprise after a certain period of time. This is the quantitative characteristic of the goal.

3. The process of forming the goals of the strategic plan for the development of an enterprise is significantly influenced by the level of its organizational culture, which can and should be considered as a strategic factor in the development of an enterprise.

The formation of the goals of the strategic plan for the development of an enterprise (actual goal setting) is a logical process that can be systematized to a certain extent, but cannot be formalized. At the same time, it should be interactive in order to achieve a balance between the goals and a specific program of action that ensures their full implementation.

4. The concept of model strategies is based on the idea that each strategy is based on competitive advantage and that in order to achieve it, the firm must justify and choose its strategy.

Thus, companies that wish to gain competitive advantage and market resilience in a crisis must choose only one of the strategies and strive for excellence in it.

2.2. Methodology for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise

To assess the financial condition, the following groups of indicators are calculated:

liquidity;

financial stability;

Profitability.

Consider the formulas for these indicators by groups.

The first indicator of liquidity is the current liquidity ratio:

Current liquidity ratio (Kt.l.), or coverage ratio, is equal to the ratio of the value of all current (mobile) assets of the enterprise to the value of short-term liabilities. The value of this indicator from 1 to 2 is considered the most acceptable in modern conditions.

The second indicator is the quick liquidity ratio. The quick liquidity ratio is determined by the ratio of the most liquid part of current assets, that is, excluding the least liquid part of current assets - stocks, to short-term liabilities:

The third ratio is the absolute liquidity ratio. The absolute liquidity ratio shows what part of short-term liabilities can be repaid immediately:

Meaning Cal.l. ≥ 0.2 positively characterizes the quality of liquidity management.

Financial stability indicators characterize the degree of protection of the interests of investors and creditors. The basis for their calculation is the value of property, therefore, in order to analyze financial stability, closer attention should be paid to the company's liabilities.

The most important indicator of this group of indicators is the coefficient of equity capital agility (Km.sk.).

Sufficiently high level Km.sk. considered 0.5. In this case, the risk of creditors is minimized. Having sold half of the property, the company will be able to pay off its debt obligations, even if the second half, in which the borrowed funds are invested, is depreciated for some reason. The value of the inverse Km.sk. is the coefficient of financial independence (Kf.z):

The dependence of the enterprise on external loans characterizes the ratio of borrowed and own funds. This ratio is determined using the debt capital concentration ratio (Кз):

The higher the value of the indicator, the higher the risk of shareholders, since in the event of non-fulfillment of payment obligations, the possibility of bankruptcy of the enterprise increases. The standard value of the indicator is 0.5-1. Its critical value is equal to one. The excess of the amount of debt over the amount of own funds indicates that the financial stability of the enterprise is in doubt.

To characterize the ratio of borrowed funds and other elements of capital, the coefficient of the ratio of own and borrowed funds (Ks.zk.sk) is calculated:

A good characteristic of the sustainability of an enterprise is its ability to develop in changing conditions of the internal and external environment.

Profitability indicators allow you to evaluate the performance of the enterprise as a whole. They also provide an opportunity to compare alternative options for the use of advanced resources and current costs in terms of their effectiveness.

To assess the business activity of joint-stock companies (or enterprises paying dividends on securities), the economic growth sustainability coefficient is used:

The numerator of this ratio P N- div „ represents the net income minus dividends paid to shareholders. If dividends are not paid, this indicator is the same as the net return on assets. Other indicators of profitability are also important. A characteristic of management efficiency is the profitability of products:

where: Pr - profit from sales.

Рп - shows the share of profit from sales in each ruble of turnover.

Cost efficiency for the main activity and for its other types allows you to compare the profitability of the main activity:

where: SPT is the cost of production and sales of products (line 020 + line 030 + line 040 (form No. 2)). It shows the share of profit from sales in each ruble of the cost of goods sold, serves as a characteristic of management efficiency and the correctness of the chosen strategy.

Return on total capital (Rsov.k) comparing its value with the value of R.d allows you to identify reserves to improve the efficiency of the enterprise.

where: Pch - net profit of the enterprise.

If Rsov.k will be more than Ro.d , This means that there is reason to think about whether this type of activity should be left as the main one for the enterprise. The application of this indicator is based on the assumption that profit is generated by capital and does not depend on the value of property. The assessment of the company's capital in this case directly depends on the amount of net profit, confirming that capital is an asset that can make a profit.

The disadvantage of this approach should be considered too much conditional assessment of capital and focus more on future income than on actually received. Another important disadvantage of the return on total capital is that it distorts the idea of the financial results of the enterprise in terms of inflation. He evaluates the effectiveness of economic activity depending on the amount of profit received during the reporting period, but in the future the enterprise may face a completely new situation. Important information for reflection to the shareholders of the enterprise is given by the knowledge of the return on equity (Rsk):

This indicator allows you to evaluate the effectiveness of managing the capital advanced at the stage of organizing an enterprise. The growth of the indicator indicates that financial managers skillfully use the attracted financial resources.

One of the key performance indicators of the enterprise is the total return on assets (Ra). It represents the ratio of book profit to the value of the property, i.e. the amount of economic funds (assets) at the disposal of the enterprise:

where: Pb - balance sheet profit;

Asr - the average value of the assets of the enterprise (p. 190) for the analyzed period.

Net return on current assets (Rch.a) shows what net profit the company receives from each ruble invested in assets:

where: ОАср - the average value of current assets of the enterprise.

Having considered a considerable number of evaluation criteria, however, we can conclude that these indicators, in general, can give an idea of the financial condition of the enterprise, and comparing these indicators with those of competitors can give an idea of the financial competitiveness of the object of study.

In 2007, the company's revenue was $133 million and net income was $13 million. In 2008, the amount of revenue decreased by 70%. In general, according to the media, the company's financial activities developed in accordance with the plans developed, but the impact of the global financial crisis significantly reduced the company's capitalization due to a sharp drop in the company's stock prices.

The company's client base consists of more than 700 large and medium-sized companies from various sectors of the economy, as well as government agencies.

In ARMADA's portfolio of IT contracts, approximately 50% of revenue comes from commercial Russian companies, about 40% from orders from government agencies, and 10% from orders from foreign clients.

In the beginning, we will calculate a group of indicators characterizing the financial stability and liquidity of the company, Table. 2.1.

Table 2.1

Liquidity and Financial Stability Indicators of OJSC Armada in 2007-2008

Index			Change
Index
Current liquidity ratio (Ktl)
Quick liquidity ratio (Kbl)
Absolute liquidity ratio (Cal)
The ratio of own and borrowed funds (Ks.zk.sk)
Debt capital concentration ratio (Кз)
Financial Independence Ratio (Kf.z)
Equity maneuverability ratio (Km.sk.)

In 2008 current, quick and absolute liquidity ratios decreased. The greatest change is observed in the absolute liquidity ratio, which decreased by more than two times and amounted to 0.72 at the end of 2008.

A decrease in liquidity ratios means a drop in the company's ability to repay its debts, however, the high value of the current (4.44) and quick liquidity ratios (6.57) indicates the ability of Armada OJSC to use more credit and attracted financial resources in its turnover, without losing financial independence.

The indicators of financial stability also testify to the significant potential of the company. For every ruble of borrowed funds in 2008, there are 13.74 rubles of own financial resources.

In general, the calculation of liquidity and financial stability indicators indicates the high stability and sufficiency of the enterprise's cash, which is very important, as it characterizes a high potential for competitiveness.

Data on the dynamics of the company's revenue are presented in table 2.2.

Table 2.2

Revenue of Armada JSC in 2007-2008

In 2008, Armada demonstrated organic growth in consolidated revenue, which increased by 27% in dollar terms (unaudited IFRS).

The share of proceeds from state structures grew to 75%, and each of the largest clients brought no more than 10% of total income. The share of long-term contracts has increased to approximately 30%.

For a complete assessment of the financial condition of JSC "Armada" we will calculate the indicators characterizing the performance of the company, Table. 2.3.

Table 2.3

The performance of JSC "Armada" in 2007-2008

Index			Change
Index
Economic Growth Sustainability Ratio (Kst)
Product profitability (Rp)
Profitability of the main activity (Kin)
Return on total capital (Rsov.k)
Return on equity (Rsk)
Total return on assets (Ra)
Net profitability of current assets (Рч.а)

The calculation of indicators characterizing the effectiveness of activities showed that, compared with 2007, there was a deterioration in the performance of the enterprise. This is caused by two main factors:

1. Decreased net profit due to the financial crisis;

2. There was a significant drop in the company's capitalization.

As a result, operating profitability declined, with operating profitability down 29.2%.

The only indicator that tends to increase is the return on assets, which increased by 101.8%.

Thus, we can conclude that the indicators of the financial condition indicate that, in general, the performance indicators of JSC "Armada" have significantly decreased under the influence of the global financial crisis. More precisely, this conclusion is confirmed by the dynamics of prices for the company's shares listed in the Russian Trading System (RTS) presented in Fig. 2.1 and 2.2. With the help of stock trading, the company managed to attract significant amounts of financial resources that diversified into new developments and the purchase of promising companies, which in the future made it possible to significantly improve the financial inflow of financial resources and financial condition.

Trading in the shares of OJSC "Armada" continues on the stock exchange to the present. The dynamics of demand for shares and their market price depended on the conjuncture of the Russian trading system. Thus, since July 31, 2007, the shares of Armada JSC have been listed on the stock exchange at a price of 323 rubles or 16.4 US dollars. Dynamics of changes in the share price in US dollars is shown in fig. 2.1.

As can be seen from fig. 2.1. The global financial crisis and the sharp drop in the RTS index in the second half of 2008 led to a significant drop in the selling price of shares in OAO Armada. As of 01.03.2009, at the time of closing, shares of OAO Armada were trading at a price of $1 per share.

Rice. 2.1. Dynamics of the sale price of shares of JSC "Armada" (USD) for the period from 31.07.2007 to 01.03.2009

Thus, the share price has fallen 16 times since the company's IPO on March 1, 2009. This had a significant impact on the company's capitalization, the dynamics of which is shown in Fig. 2.3.

Rice. 2.2. Capitalization of JSC "Armada" (USD) for the period from 31.07.2007 to 01.03.2009

From the moment of the IPO and until 07/01/2008, the capitalization of the company JSC "Armada" was constantly increasing, which confirms the calculations made to justify the market value of the company's shares at the time of the initial offering, however, the global financial crisis brought down the company's capitalization, as a result of which we can conclude that as of 01.03 .2009 the financial possibilities of the company are sharply limited and the company suffered significant losses. The correction, as noted above, affected the company's financial performance, which declined. However, taking into account the fact that the company as a whole is focused mainly on the domestic market, we can conclude that the share price will grow in the future, since the potential of the IT market in Russia is very high. This confirms the gradual increase in the price of the company's shares, which began in April 2009, and although it develops in different directions, it tends to increase, fig. 2.3.

Rice. 2.3 Dynamics of the value of the shares of JSC "Armada" and the RTS index from 02.06.08 to 25.09.2009

Thus, we can conclude that the global financial crisis had a negative impact on the activities of JSC "Armada", which caused the need for management at the end of 2008 to revise its financial development strategy for the period of the crisis.

3.2. Analysis of strategic alternatives of an enterprise in a crisis

The main sales market for ARMADA's products is the Russian IT market, which is one of the fastest growing segments of the Russian economy: its average annual growth rate in 2003-2007 was . 23-25%, and in 2008 the growth was 0.5%, and this is one of the best indicators of the growth of the IT market among developed countries in the world.

In the five-year forecast period (2009-2013) spending on IT in Russia will grow annually by an average of 5.8% and in 2012 will amount to $29.5 billion.

In terms of market volumes, 2009 may turn out to be similar to 2007 in dollar terms, as the impact of the financial crisis will subside during 2009, while the capitalization of Armada OJSC will increase.

According to Gartner's forecast, the Russian IT market in 2009 will grow by 2.7-5.7% compared to sales in 2008 ($17.23 billion).

In a crisis, outsourcing can become an option for optimizing IT costs for customers.

As the experience of Western countries shows, the economic downturns of recent years were accompanied by an increase in investment in outsourcing. Volumes of IT outsourcing in 2009 will not decrease,

First of all, IT costs in 2009 will be reduced by not buying hardware. Companies' PC upgrade cycles will be extended, and new planned projects will be "frozen" or downsized.

One of the main drivers of the IT sector in recent years is the public sector. The public sector has a significant impact on the industry due to the annual increase in federal and regional spending on IT, as well as the beginning of active informatization of the social sphere, caused by the launch of priority national projects.

In the coming years, this trend will not only continue, but will further intensify due to allocations for the development of "Electronic Government".

Currently, ARMADA does not intend to expand into foreign markets, as it sees great strategic prospects in the Russian market, including in the provision of IT services to the public sector.

The following factors may adversely affect the sale of ARMADA's products - the risk of a decrease in demand in all sales markets due to a slowdown in the growth of the Russian economy.

To minimize this risk, ARMADA pursues a policy of constant cost-effectiveness control, but at the same time strives to provide the highest quality services, which will ensure the development of competencies necessary to form a long-term competitive advantage over competitors.

Currently, the Russian IT market is actively developing: there are already a significant number of players on the market (more than 5,000), but no single participant controls more than 10% of the market (less than 40% of the market falls to the share of the 20 largest companies).

Section 4. Analysis of the results of the studies

The analysis carried out according to the data of JSC "Armada" allows us to draw the following conclusions:

The global financial crisis has a significant impact on the shares of companies that are traded on the securities market;

The global financial crisis has had a greater impact on the corporate sector of the Russian economy than on the public sector;

JSC "Armada" expects a decrease in demand from the corporate sector for its own products and services and expects an increase in demand from the public sector;

The impact of the global financial crisis affected the financial condition of JSC "Armada", the indicators of the financial condition deteriorated;

The price of the shares of JSC "Armada" traded on the RTS has fallen significantly, and as of September 2009, although there is a trend in the growth of the share price, it is much lower than before the crisis;

JSC "Armada" builds its business on the basis of borrowed capital both in the form of bank loans, including foreign ones, and through borrowing in the securities market;

JSC "Armada" allocates the attracted funds for the acquisition of the most promising companies in the field of software development and IT outsourcing;

The strategic goal of ARMADA for the next 3-5 years is to occupy 3-5% of the Russian IT market through the consolidation of leading niche market players and its own growth.

In the future, Armada OJSC will continue to attract financial resources in order to purchase market players in order to achieve its strategic goal.

The market development strategy is to form in the foreseeable future 3-5 major players that control more than half of the market.

Thus, we can conclude that, despite the financial crisis, the company has the opportunity, due to the fact that it is one of the largest market players, to consolidate assets by purchasing smaller companies to increase its market share.

Thus, JSC "Armada" has three main strategic alternatives for the next 3 years:

Strategic purchases of niche leaders - companies with their own product, innovative technologies of the company that complement its business;

Expanding our own product and service line by investing in development, expertise and partnerships;

Synergy through cross-selling an extended product line to existing and new customers.

The goal of the Armada OJSC group for the next 3-5 years is to occupy 3-5% of the Russian IT market through the consolidation of leading niche market players and its own growth.

The company does not plan to shift its priorities towards low-margin products and services such as distribution, hardware and others.

Armada expects that in 2009 IT services will continue to develop at a faster pace.

Many companies, in an effort to optimize costs, will partially reduce their own IT resources, resorting to the services of third parties. Currently, Soyuzinform, which is part of Armada, is one of the leaders in the Russian IT outsourcing market, which allows it to count on an increase in the number of orders.

In addition, the crisis provides successful companies with additional opportunities - weak players leave the market or are consolidated by stronger ones.

The company has a stable portfolio of orders, has successfully optimized costs, has no debts and does not need long-term external financing, so it will be able to increase profitability.

2009 the company intends to continue the strategy of "mergers and acquisitions" - M&A. Armada is currently actively negotiating with various IT companies for takeover.

The financial crisis has created a unique opportunity to acquire assets with huge growth potential at very attractive prices.

The company expects that after the end of the economic downturn, Armada, as one of the few public IT companies in Russia with no debt load, with significant M&A experience, will have an advantage over competitors in the upcoming consolidation in the industry.

Combining organic growth and an acquisition strategy will help achieve the goal of occupying about 5% of the Russian IT market in the medium term.

Section 5. Identification of strategic problems and possible solutions

In the context of the financial crisis, there is a possibility of a slowdown in the growth of demand for IT solutions from customers, and as a result, increased competition in all segments of the IT market.

The largest decline in demand for services will occur in the corporate segment, which is also suffering from the crisis, and therefore will undergo a greater correction than in the segment of government customers. As a result, the income and profitability of the company may decrease.

To solve this problem, JSC "Armada" should concentrate its competitive advantages in the sector of IT solutions for government agencies.

The IT market is actively developing: technologies, industrial standards are changing, new types of services are emerging, and consumer requirements are constantly growing. The success of Armada OJSC will depend on its ability to adequately respond to changes in modern technologies and the IT market as a whole. If ARMADA OJSC fails to achieve this, then consumer interest in the services and products of ARMADA OJSC may fall, which may adversely affect its activities and financial condition.

To minimize this problem, JSC "Armada" attracts professional specialists and constantly searches for new technologies and innovations, invests heavily in the development of new technologies and product lines of the company.

The development of JSC "Armada" in particular is based on plans to acquire other IT companies. In connection with a possible correction in the IT market, the problems of making investments are increasing. On the other hand, there is a strategic problem that the most attractive in the long term but depreciated in the short term will be bought by competitors.

To minimize the first problem, as before, ARMADA pays considerable attention to assessing the risks of making acquisitions. An important role is played by the experience of several years of systematic activity carried out by ARMADA OJSC to search for and offer favorable conditions to companies of interest to it. The company will continue to maintain its contacts with potential assets, which will allow more accurate forecasting of problems from the acquisition of the asset.

To minimize the second problem, the company should consider various options for structuring and paying transactions, including share swaps.

The company has always tried to minimize problems with key employees. Such employees are top managers, project managers, salespeople, key specialists.

The company must provide employees with a constant competitive market level of wages and bonuses, social benefits and compensation, as well as a career development program. The Company should use adaptation mechanisms for newly hired employees, aimed at the speedy inclusion of new employees in the work, and also takes care of the training of young specialists, much attention is paid to training in staff development.

The intellectual property rights of JSC ARMADA are protected by copyrights, trademark rights, trade secret laws, user policies, license agreements and disclosure restrictions.

At the same time, third parties may be able to unauthorizedly copy the software developed by ARMADA OJSC, or otherwise illegally use the intellectual property of ARMADA OJSC.

Problems of JSC "Armada" in protecting its intellectual property rights from infringement or illegal use may adversely affect its financial position and ability to conduct commercial activities. In addition, there is a risk that Armada OJSC will be involved in legal proceedings to protect its intellectual property rights. Any litigation of JSC "Armada" may adversely affect its activities and financial position.

JSC "Armada" rents office space and in the event of an increase in rental prices, this may adversely affect the results of its activities. However, according to numerous analysts' forecasts, the current turbulent market situation may lead to a decrease in rental rates due to falling demand.

If the cost of production of JSC "Armada" increases (in particular, due to higher tax rates, the introduction of new currency legislation, the establishment of new requirements for licensing activities carried out by the companies of the Holding), and JSC "Armada" will not be able to adequately increase prices for their products to cover such costs (for example, due to increased competition and lower prices for similar services), this may adversely affect the results of economic activities. Therefore, to solve this problem, it is necessary to constantly look for opportunities to minimize their costs through more efficient project management.

Changes in the global economy have already begun to adversely affect the Russian economy and are likely to continue to do so well into 2009. This may result in limited access of OJSC ARMADA to capital, and may also adversely affect the purchasing power of OJSC ARMADA's customers and, consequently, its commercial activities.

In order to minimize the dependence on these problems, ARMADA should focus on sectors where, on the one hand, the decrease in demand, according to management's forecasts, will be the smallest, and, on the other hand, where the company has great competitive advantages. In the area of market segments by customers, these are state structures and structures with a share of state capital. In terms of the company's product line segments, priority should still be given to high-margin products and services, such as software development and IT services.

To raise capital, Armada must use its transparency for investors, which is an advantage over a large number of closed competitor structures.

Risks associated with possible military conflicts, the introduction of a state of emergency and strikes in the country (countries) and region in which the issuer is registered as a taxpayer and/or carries out its main activities:

Military conflicts, introduction of a state of emergency, strikes, accidents at environmentally hazardous facilities in the Russian Federation may adversely affect the Issuer's activities.

The consequences of the crisis may lead to an increase in the cost of external financing for its transparency to investors (if such financing is needed).

Some costs are transparent to investors, such as wages for employees, and are sensitive to increases in the general price level in Russia. In such a situation, due to strong competition, its transparency to investors may not be able to raise the prices of its products sufficiently to keep the rate of return at the same level. Thus, inflation can increase the cost of its transparency to investors and lower rates of return, reducing the value of shares of its transparency to investors.

To minimize this problem, ARMADA enters into long-term contracts with customers (more than a year), in which the cost of work at the next stage is approved by the parties upon completion of work at the current stage, which allows taking into account changes in market conditions.

Exposure to the financial condition of JSC "Armada", its liquidity, funding sources, performance results, etc. changes in the exchange rate (currency risks).

A fall in the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar or the euro may have a negative impact on JSC ARMADA, increasing the ruble equivalent of JSC ARMADA's debt on loans and borrowings in foreign currency (if such loans exist), and, accordingly, the cost of paying interest.

To minimize this problem, the majority of revenues and expenses of JSC "Armada" remains in rubles.

Thus, we have identified the main strategic problems of JSC "Armada" and we will develop recommendations for determining the goals of the enterprise's development in the context of the global financial crisis.

Section 6. Recommendations for changing the strategy in a crisis in terms of financial strategy

6.1. Determining the goals of enterprise development in a crisis

In 2009, in connection with the crisis, the emphasis on the tasks solved by IT will be different, and the shares in IT budgets will be revised. Thus, the largest part of IT budgets of companies - about 65-75%, aimed at covering operating costs, will be optimized in order to reduce IT costs. Funds allocated for innovation - about 10% and modernization and migration - about 25%, will be used to maintain the competitiveness of business at the end of the crisis and the development of new models of IT use. In such a situation, we do not exclude the possibility of using IT outsourcing.”

Successful acquisitions of companies with high growth potential in the early stages of their growth or at times of low value due to unfavorable market conditions, combined with the opportunities of the already existing business of Armada OJSC, can act as a catalyst for significant growth in the acquired businesses. The probability of occurrence of such events is quite high due to the rich accumulated experience in the choice of investment objects.

The company historically began with highly profitable segments of the IT market, such as Software Development and Implementation and IT Services, and therefore has high-quality expertise, a mature corporate culture and significant intellectual potential in these areas. This allows Armada to more effectively than many competitors to combine with similar highly profitable IT businesses and get more synergies.

To develop the goals of JSC "Armada", we will determine the interests of the main groups of people who are interested in the organization's activities in the market, table 6.1.

Table 6.1

Interests of key stakeholder groups

Name of the person concerned	Main Interest
1. Owner	Making a profit, raising one's own status
2. Employees of the organization	Prestige of the organization, high level of remuneration
3. Buyers of products and services	High level of reliability and quality
4. Business partners	Permanent orders, convenient scheme of work, high solvency
5. IT market in Russia	The emergence of a major player with great opportunities
6. State as a whole	Production of IT products, competitiveness of IT products in comparison with competitors

Thus, we can conclude that the main interest of the activities of JSC "Armada" is that all persons are interested in the enterprise:

Received profit and increased capitalization;

Produced competitive products and services;

Acquired niche players in order to increase its market share.

Thus, on the basis of the represented interests, we will make goal-setting for the long-term period of the company.

Table 6.2

Goals of strategic planning of JSC "Armada"

The main goals of strategic planning in the Russian market are to attract financial resources, increase the company's capitalization, increase the market share to 3-5% with a moderate basic pricing policy.

The market share of OJSC "Armada" should be at least 3-5% in the period 2009-2012, and the pricing policy should be flexible and moderate in order to achieve the set goals. In the short term (up to a year), JSC "Armada" should strive to conclude a significant number of contracts, both in the public and corporate sectors.

Thus, we will form the main goals of the company's development for the next 3 years, formed under the influence of the global financial crisis:

1. Carrying out an M&A strategy to buy companies in the IT market and increase the company's share to 3-5% by 2012;

2. Expansion of the product line, in order to gain a foothold in the market;

3. Optimal borrowing policy using loans and the securities market.

6.2. Designing a strategic development program in a crisis

Prior to the onset of the crisis, Armada OJSC was developing steadily, which allowed it to make a profit, increase capitalization and attract significant resources from the securities market.

Prior to the crisis, Armada OJSC pursued a strategy of mergers and acquisitions of niche companies, and the financial crisis led to the fact that it became more difficult to attract borrowed funds and the price of borrowed capital increased. At the same time, the value of the acquired companies decreased. Thus, JSC "Armada" should take the following strategic actions in a crisis.

Rice. 6.1 - Strategic actions of JSC "Armada" in a crisis

Based on the selected strategic actions, we will justify the development strategy of JSC "Armada" until 2012.

The corporate business strategy of JSC "Armada" until 2012 is the implementation of corporate mergers and acquisitions in the IT market.

The implementation of this strategy of JSC "Armada" can have both positive and negative sides.

The positive side is the synergy effect.

Synergy is the effect of the addition of forces, exceeding the arithmetic sum. In accordance with it, JSC Armada arising from business integration can use a wide range of advantages (synergies) that arise as a result of combining the resources of these corporations. All synergies can be divided into two types: operational synergies and financial synergies.

Operational synergies are represented by the following effects.

1. Savings in transaction costs (agglomeration effect).

OJSC "Armada", as a result of the merger, can achieve a significant reduction in administrative, marketing and many other operating costs.

2. Savings on R&D (research and development).

JSC "Armada" can use the research centers of the acquired corporation, as well as its employees to create and implement new products, while significantly reducing the costs associated with such activities.

3. The effect of combining complementary resources.

JSC "Armada" and small companies often have complementary resources. When such companies merge, everyone wins: a small company gets access to financial resources, and Armada OJSC gets the product it needs at a low price (and there are no costs for developing its own production).

4. Increasing the size of the corporation's market niche.

Capturing a large segment of the market through a horizontal or vertical merger entails a significant reduction in competition in it, which is beneficial for the new corporation, but leads to market monopolization. That is why in many countries of the world in the past few decades there has been a fight against mergers that “restrict competition”.

Financial synergies are associated with the creation of tax shields (avoidance of taxation). The possibility of using a merger as a way to avoid taxation plays an important role among the factors that stimulate mergers. For example, Armada OJSC may decide to merge if one of them has tax benefits and the other does not. Then, if after the merger the tax benefits are extended to the new corporation, it is beneficial to both corporations.

The negative aspects of the implementation of the strategy include the following.

When implementing this strategy, top managers, having significant influence and power, no longer act in the interests of their shareholders, their main motive is their own interests, which often do not coincide with the interests of shareholders (see Table 6.3).

Table 6.3

Motivation of corporate management behavior

Problem	Definition
Motivation	Managers have reasons to put less effort into running a company than shareholders expect them to.
Choosing an investment horizon	Managers always have a shorter investment horizon than their shareholders. Managers prefer short-term projects that increase their own wealth over long-term projects that increase shareholder wealth.
risk taking	The well-being of a manager directly depends on whether he remains in his post or is removed from it (as a result of a decision of the board of directors or the bankruptcy of the company), so managers are always more careful in making decisions compared to their shareholders.
Efficiency use of assets	Managers may have motives for inefficient use of the company's assets, since their own well-being does not directly depend on the impact of the use of assets on the value of the company.

Top managers have reasons for allowing their corporations to grow beyond their optimal size through mergers and acquisitions. Growth and, as a result, the concentration of resources under the control of management, increase their power.

In practice, in order to reduce the impact of this negative factor, JSC "Armada" should apply techniques for the activities of managers.

First of all, it is the control of the stock market. The capital market quickly signals to a company's shareholders (through the value of the company's shares on the stock market) that its management cares more about its own interests than about increasing their net wealth.

Another tool of control for shareholders can be contracts concluded with the manager when he is hired, which clearly spell out all his duties, decisions that he can and cannot make, the amount and conditions of his remuneration, etc.

A powerful new tool in this area can be the corporate control market with mergers and acquisitions, which does not materially exist, but its material measure exists - the stock market.

The main premise underlying the effective functioning of the corporate control market is the existence of a high positive correlation between the effectiveness of a company's management and the market value of its shares.

If a company under the control of its management performs unsatisfactorily, then this is reflected in the fall in the market value of its shares.

In this case, the company quickly becomes a potential takeover target from other companies that are guided by different motives:

Armada's managers may hope, through takeover or takeover, to capture the wealth of the target company's managers, which takes the form of wages, pensions, compensatory and bonus incentive schemes;

The underestimated value of the shares of the target company due to inefficient management of its current management may reflect its hidden potential, which will be revealed as soon as control over the corporation passes to more effective management. The lower the value of a share compared to what it would have if managed more effectively, the more attractive it is as a target company.

Thus, the corporate control market performs the following functions:

Resolves agency conflicts within the company by removing its inefficient management through mergers or acquisitions;

It improves the quality of company management, since with a developed corporate control market, each manager understands that the lower the quality level of his management, the sooner his company will become the target of a takeover, which means that the chance of losing his job increases;

Increases the efficiency and competitiveness of the corporate sector of the national economy.

It allows you to quickly replace inefficient management with effective management and resolve agency conflicts, which significantly reduce the value of companies.

Thus, it can be concluded that JSC "Armada" in general uses a corporate growth strategy, which necessitated the use of scientific methods in substantiating mergers/acquisitions.

To a large extent, the main problem that JSC "Armada" may face is the problem of developing solutions for the formation of corporate merger strategies, taking into account the criteria for the economic feasibility of their implementation.

Conclusion

Under the influence of the global financial crisis, there is a decrease in the solvency of various companies, and subsequently ordinary people, which leads to instability in the economic situation, which greatly complicates the process of determining strategic prospects.

The main provisions of strategic planning in a crisis are based on 2 possible situations of an enterprise's activity:

Stability;

Survival.

A stability strategy focuses on supporting existing lines of business through "low price" leadership, either differentiation (creating unique product features), or focusing on a specific market segment. This strategy is implemented only in those segments where the company's competitive advantages are significant.

The survival strategy is applied due to existing internal or external reasons that have led the enterprise to a critical situation. This strategy is expressed through "harvesting" - obtaining the maximum income in the short term; "reversal" - the rejection of ineffective products; "separation" - the closure of unprofitable industries.

The combination of several types of competitive strategy within a business portfolio constitutes a hybrid strategy.

Armada is a diversified IT holding whose main activities are software development, IT services and equipment sales, while the high-margin segments IT Services and Software Development and Implementation fall into the scope of the company's main priorities.

JSC "Armada" was formed in early 2007 as a result of the spin-off of the IT business from the RBC group. In July 2007, Armada was the first Russian IT company to place its shares on the Russian stock exchanges MICEX and RTS.

The funds raised as a result of the IPO were used to develop the business and make new acquisitions. Thus, during 2007 the group included PM Expert, Soyuzinform and ETS.

ARMADA's strategy is aimed at combining dynamic organic development and growth through the consolidation of new highly profitable assets.

The indicators of the financial condition indicate that, in general, the performance indicators of JSC "Armada" have significantly decreased under the influence of the global financial crisis.

JSC "Armada" has three main strategic alternatives for the next 3 years:

Strategic purchases of niche leaders - companies with their own product, innovative technologies of the company that complement its business;

Expanding our own product and service line by investing in development, expertise and partnerships;

Synergy through cross-selling an extended product line to existing and new customers.

The goal of the Armada OJSC group for the next 3-5 years is to occupy 3-5% of the Russian IT market through the consolidation of leading niche market players and its own growth.

In 2009 JSC "Armada" should focus on minimizing the possible impact of the global financial crisis on demand among customers.

To do this, JSC "Armada" must continue to participate in government programs to create large-scale information systems, which also provides a competitive advantage in competitions when concluding contracts to support the developed systems.

The financial crisis made adjustments to the company's activities, which reduced the possibility of raising borrowed funds, both in the securities market and from the banking sector. However, the financial crisis also affected the activities of other smaller companies, making them more attractive for takeovers.

The strategy of JSC "Armada" until 2012, implemented in the context of the global financial crisis in a broad sense, can be characterized as vertical integration in the form of any form of relationship between legally independent or non-independent enterprises that go beyond market transactions.

Bibliography

1. Artamonov B.V. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /B. V. Artamonov. - M. Ch. 2: Typical strategies and organizational design. – 2006

2. Aristov O.V. Competition and competitiveness: Proc. allowance for part-time training in all special /O.V. Aristov; State. un-t ex., Inst. learning. - M.: Finstatinform, 1999.- 142 p.

3. Akmaeva R.I. Strategic planning and strategic management: [proc. allowance] /R. I. Akmaeva; Astrakh. state tech. un-t. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2006.- 206, p.

4. Bukanova V.I. Strategic management: textbook. allowance for 08050765, 08050265 /V. I. Bukanova. - Saratov, 2007

5. Bryantseva E.N. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /E. N. Bryantseva. - Omsk, 2007

6. Barinov V.A. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /V. A. Barinov, V. L. Kharchenko. - M.: INFRA-M, 2006.- 283, p.

7. Volkogonova O.D. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /O. D. Volkogonov. - M., 2007

8. Gornostaeva A.N. Strategic management: theory and practice /A. N. Gornostaeva, I. N. Gornostaeva, N. S. Gornostaev; Feder. education agency, Bryan. state tech. un-t. - Bryansk: Publishing House of BSTU, 2006.- 212 p.

9. Glumakov V.N. Strategic management: workshop: [proc. allowance for the specialty 080507 "Management org."] / V. N. Glumakov, M. M. Maksimtsov, N. I. Malyshev. - M.: Vuz. textbook, 2006.- 185, p.

10. Degtyareva N.M. Quality management in a competitive environment /N.M. Degtyareva, E.G. Pipko; State. acad. spheres of life and services. Povolzh. technol. in-t service. - Togliatti: PTIS, 1999.- 128 p.

11. Zaitsev L.G. Strategic management: textbook. module /L. G. Zaitsev. - M., 2004

12. Kuznetsov A.L. Strategic management: textbook. allowance for the specialty 080507, 080501 /A. L. Kuznetsov. - Izhevsk, 2006

13. Kuznetsova I.D. Strategic management: lectures, tasks, control. questions /I. D. Kuznetsova. - Ivanovo, 2006

14. Lapygin Yu.N. Strategic management: textbook. allowance: [specialty "Management org."] / Yu. N. Lapygin. - M.: INFRA-M, 2007.- 234, p.

15. Markova V.D. Strategic management: a course. lectures: [proc. allowance] /V. D. Markova, S. A. Kuznetsova. - M.; Novosibirsk: INFRA-M; Sib. agreement, 2006.- 287 p.

16. Morozova I.A. Methods of strategic management: textbook.-method. allowance /I. A. Morozova. - Volgograd, 2006

17. Panov A.I. Strategic management: [proc. manual for universities in the direction 080100 "Economics and management."] / A. I. Panov, I. O. Korobeinikov, V. A. Panov. - 3rd ed., revised. and additional .. - M .: UNITY-DANA, 2006.- 301, p.

18. Parakhina V.N. Strategic management: [proc. majoring in "Management org."] / V. N. Parakhina, L. S. Maksimenko, S. V. Panasenko. - Ed. 2nd, ster. - M.: KnoRus, 2006.- 494, p.

19. Romanov A.P. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /A. P. Romanov. - Tambov, 2006

20. Strategic management: textbook. allowance for universities. - M., 2007

21. Strategic management of an innovative organization: textbook. manual for the specialty 220601. - M., 2006

22. Shifrin M.B. Strategic management: [proc. manual for universities in the specialty and direction "Management"] / M. B. Shifrin. - St. Petersburg; St. Petersburg: Peter; Peter Press, 2007.- 240 p.

23. Fatkhutdinov R.A. Strategic Management: Textbook. – Ed. "A business". – 2005.- 447 p.

24. Khasanov R. Competition strategies: Analysis and practice /R. Khasanov. - Omsk: OmGTU, 1999.- 118 p.

25. Shcherbakovsky G.Z. Competition and firm stability /G.Z. Shcherbakovsky; St. Petersburg. state University of Economics and Finance. - St. Petersburg: SPbGUEF, 1998.- 157 p.

26. Yablokova S.A. Strategic management: lecture notes /S. A. Yablokova. - M., 2007

Attachment 1

Bukanova V.I. Strategic management: textbook. allowance for 08050765, 08050265 /V. I. Bukanova. - Saratov, 2007

JSC "Armada. Official site.#"#_ftnref24" name="_ftn24" title=""> #"#_ftnref25" name="_ftn25" title=""> http://www.interstock.ru – website of the Interstock company providing trading services on international stock exchanges

Old maps of Kotelnichsky county Population census Kotelnichsky county Sakura village

Kovrov district Vladimir province Kovrov district Dmitrovsky churchyard

Financial planning in a crisis. Successful strategies in times of crisis. From targets