Two main ways of development of agriculture in the world. Prospects for agriculture in Russia and in the world: the main directions. List of used literature
Features of economic development in agriculture
Remark 1
The key task of agricultural production is to supply the population with food, and the processing industry with the necessary agricultural raw materials.
The solution to this problem depends on:
- industry intensification;
- acceleration of scientific and technical progress;
- improvement economic relations;
- development various forms property and business types.
Agriculture is one of the most important sectors of the Russian economy. It is engaged in the production of food, raw materials for the production of finished products and provides for certain needs of the country. Demand for consumer goods is largely covered by agricultural production. Agriculture is a non-monopoly sector of the economy. Unlike others, the agricultural sector has a huge number of economic entities.
The agricultural complex consists of two components. This is the sphere of material and technical supply of the production of resources for rural areas and the sphere of agriculture itself.
Agriculture is an industry that requires special and active attention from the state. Since the economic development of the country depends on its condition. There are a number of areas that are attractive for investment, but there are also certain problems. An important requirement is to provide appropriate conditions for the harmonious development of the industry.
The main problems of the development of the agricultural sector:
- low rates of structural and technological modernization of the industry, renewal of fixed production assets and reproduction of natural and environmental potential;
- unfavorable general conditions for the functioning of agriculture (low level of market infrastructure development, which creates barriers for agricultural producers to access financial, material and technical financial markets, as well as markets for information resources and finished products);
- financial instability of the industry associated with the instability of the markets for agricultural products, raw materials and food, insufficient inflow of private investment for the development of the industry, poor development of insurance in the production of agricultural products;
- lack of qualified personnel due to the low quality of life in rural areas.
Economic growth trends in agriculture
Today, agriculture is one of the few fast-growing sectors of the economy. And even during crises, this industry showed growth. But despite the encouraging performance and favorable development prospects, there are a number of acute challenges facing agricultural producers.
Remark 2
The unsuccessful agricultural policy pursued at the end of the 20th century negatively affected the development of the industry. But thanks to state support and the establishment of an insurance and credit system, economic growth began to take shape in the early 2000s.
The increase in domestic agricultural production and the imposition of embargoes on some countries led to a reduction in food and raw material imports. But exports of wheat, sunflower oil, poultry and pork increased. Products are supplied mainly to non-CIS countries and the CIS.
The key trends in the growth and development of the agricultural economy are:
- technical modernization (but there is a slight decrease in its pace due to the depreciation of the ruble and the rise in prices for imported equipment);
- subsidizing agricultural producers (state support for greenhouse vegetable growing, pig breeding, seed production, etc.);
- growth in lending to the development of the industry.
The high level of agricultural subsidies attracts large investors. But there are a number of unresolved problems. This is an irrational distribution of subsidies. A significant part of them is allocated to support animal husbandry, while little money goes to the development of fodder production, etc. Also, insufficient subsidies are provided for the modernization and reconstruction of greenhouses and storage facilities.
In the summer of 2012, the state program for the development of agriculture until 2020 was approved, which includes the following areas:
- ensuring food security in Russia;
- growth of import substitution of meat, dairy products, vegetables and fruits and berries;
- increasing the competitiveness of domestic products in the domestic and foreign markets;
- strengthening the financial stability of agribusiness enterprises;
- improving the efficiency of land use;
- greening of production;
- creation of an innovative agro-industrial complex;
- development of food subcomplexes and territorial clusters;
- development of rural areas.
Factors of economic growth in agriculture
Definition 1
Factors of economic growth are external phenomena that identify opportunities for increasing the real volume of production, the efficiency and quality of economic growth.
The following factors of economic growth in agriculture are distinguished:
- state support;
- land resources;
- natural and climatic conditions
- state of science and technology;
- healthy competitive environment.
State support is very important for the development of agriculture. In almost all countries, this sector of the economy needs subsidies to eliminate the inequality of prices for agricultural products. In addition, funds are needed for the development of new technologies, the purchase of equipment and the modernization of production.
The availability of land resources is the main factor of production. Vast areas suitable for farming and animal husbandry contribute to increasing the competitiveness of the country's agriculture on the world stage.
Natural and climatic conditions make it possible to develop the industry or, on the contrary, bring losses to agricultural enterprises in case of adverse weather events (drought, frost, prolonged rains).
The development of science and technology has a certain influence on the activities of the agro-industrial complex. But unlike other areas of the economy in agriculture, innovations are introduced slowly and take root for a long time. But the productivity and growth of production volumes depend on scientific and technical progress.
For the development of agricultural enterprises great importance plays the presence of healthy competition. This area is regulated by special state antimonopoly structures. The main task is to prevent the emergence of monopolies and support the development of small and medium-sized businesses.
15.2. The main trends in the development of agriculture
The impressive successes in the development of agricultural production achieved in the second half of the 20th century were due to the action of a number of factors directly related to the high achievements of agricultural science and scientific and technological progress in related fields. Of decisive importance were mechanization, chemicalization and electrification, as well as the intensification of agricultural production, the introduction of more efficient agricultural methods, new high-yielding crop varieties, more productive livestock breeds and the use of industrial production methods, in particular in the field of animal husbandry and horticultural crops. Irrigated agriculture expanded quite impressively - from 80 million hectares in 1950 to 273 million hectares in 2001, more than one-third of which was in Asian countries.
The transition to the machine stage of agricultural production can be compared to what happened in the world economy after the industrial revolution. Naturally, the highest results were achieved in large agricultural enterprises, where the advantages of using machines could give the highest profitability. This, in turn, led to a strong differentiation in the scale of the use of machinery and equipment in regions that differ in the degree of concentration of capital and financing of agriculture (Table 15.4).
In 1950, about 700 million people were employed in world agriculture, less than 7 million tractors (of which 4 million in the USA, 180 thousand in Germany, 150 thousand in France) and less than 1.5 million harvesters. Weak change in the number of agricultural machines at the turn of the XXI century. reflects, firstly, the relative saturation of developed regions with machines and, secondly, the limited possibilities for financing agriculture in poor regions. Differences in the number of used equipment in Europe and North America are explained by the peculiarities of land ownership: farms in Europe, as a rule, are much smaller than American farms, and therefore less powerful equipment is used on them. But in general, the capacity of agricultural machinery has steadily increased. In the 1950s, tractors with a capacity of 10-30 hp were used mainly, on which one worker could cultivate 15-20 hectares. In recent decades, the power of tractors has steadily increased, if the area of agricultural land allowed it, and the largest farms now use tractors with a power of over 120 hp, on which one worker can handle up to 200 hectares. At the same time, where farm areas are small (in Europe, an average of 12 hectares, versus tens and hundreds, up to thousands of hectares in North America, Australia and New Zealand), small tractors are still predominantly used.
Mechanization not only extended to the area of field work, but affected all aspects of agricultural activity. For example, steam "to milking units now amounts to 200 thousand in the world. If in 1950 one worker milked 12 cows twice a day, now modern equipment allows him to serve up to 100 cows. Similar changes have occurred in other types of agricultural works.
The widespread introduction of all kinds of technology made it possible to sharply increase the productivity of those employed in agriculture, although at the same time it required higher expenditures of electricity and mineral fuel. As a result, by the end of the 1970s, the power supply and electric supply of the agricultural worker exceeded those of the industrial worker. This meant that agriculture switched to an industrial mode of production. Of course, the above applies only to large farms in developed countries, but they are the most profitable and productive.
Another direction of mechanization was the universalization of the equipment used. One tractor with the help of various mounted and trailed implements could perform a variety of functions. Equipment for the primary processing of the resulting crop was also improved: drying, preparation for storage, transportation, etc. All this increased the energy intensity of farms.
Chemicalization of agriculture is another important factor in improving agricultural production. Among the many uses of chemicals in agriculture, two are the most widespread and effective: the use of fertilizers and crop protection chemicals to increase crop yields and productivity while improving agricultural practices.
The scale of the use of mineral fertilizers can be judged from the data on their production (Table 15.5), which has stabilized in recent years. It should be noted that now about 8 times more mineral fertilizers are applied to the soil than in 1950.
The use of mineral and organic fertilizers, combined with the development of new varieties of plants that could most effectively respond to them, made it possible to seriously increase the yield of many crops. But the possibilities of their application are limited, since excessive fertilization of the soil can cause serious damage not only to productivity, but even more to the quality of products. Thus, excessive nitrate content leads to rapid deterioration of vegetables during storage and is harmful to human health.
Significant damage to agriculture is caused by all kinds of pests: insects, fungi, caterpillars, weeds, etc., which can sometimes destroy the crop in a short time. To combat them, chemical plant protection products have been developed, which, as a rule, have a specific focus on a certain type of pests. So, fungicides are used against fungal diseases, insecticides - to control insect pests, etc. In developed countries, large-scale production of chemical plant protection products has long been established, and their annual exports in recent years have exceeded $ 11 billion. Over the past 50 years, dozens and hundreds of different ingredients have been developed for chemical protection products. Despite the fact that the development was carried out under careful control and with the necessary precautions, their use, especially in violation of the rules, can sometimes lead to serious damage to the environment and human health.
The development of various equipment and chemicals for the maintenance of agriculture and for the processing of its products, as well as breeding work to develop new plant varieties and livestock breeds, required the creation of a scientific base and significant R&D costs. During the second half of the XX century. financing of R&D in agriculture in developed countries was carried out with the active assistance of the state. This was due to the strategic importance of the industry and the desire to ensure the food security of countries.
By the end of the past century, priorities in the field of financing R&D in the agro-industrial complex began to change gradually. Industrialized countries have already achieved food security and have begun to reduce funding for this type of work, increasingly leaving this field of activity to the private sector. But even there a reassessment of priorities took place - the share of financing directly to agriculture began to decrease, while the share of developments in the sectors of its service and processing of its products increased. But the growth rate of R&D spending continues to be much higher than the growth rate of agricultural production. These types of scientific work are most developed in the USA, England, Holland, Australia and New Zealand, in which much attention has traditionally been paid to agricultural problems. According to some estimates, private investment in these countries reaches half of all funding for these purposes and in the mid-90s was estimated at about $7 billion.
Conducting a wide front of R&D, in contrast to previous periods of agricultural development, when any one innovation was introduced and distributed, made it possible to achieve amazing results over a historically short period (10-20 years). In crop production, breeders have bred new varieties and hybrids that are distinguished by high yields and other useful properties, livestock breeders have bred new, more productive breeds of livestock.
An example of an increase in yields is the United Kingdom, where the average wheat yield was increased to 70 centners per hectare. In the early 1950s, the yields of major crops in most countries were the same as at the beginning of the century. By the end of the century, it had increased 3-4 times, and in the most developed countries on advanced farms it increased even more: for example, for wheat - up to 100 centners per hectare, or 5-10 times. Approximately on the same scale, the productivity of animal husbandry was increased, in particular, milk yield increased from 2,000 to 10,000 liters per year.
The intensification of agricultural production under the influence of scientific and technical progress, called the "green revolution", at the same time meant a sharp increase in the capital intensity of agricultural farms, comparable per worker with specific capital investments in modern industry. It is the need for very large financial outlays that has become the main obstacle to the widespread introduction of the achievements of the Green Revolution in the agriculture of developing countries.
Another important circumstance hindering the use of these achievements is the need for highly qualified specialists capable of competently using machinery, fertilizers and chemical protection agents. It is enough to take revenge that in some developed countries it is established by law that only persons with a special higher agricultural education can be farmers.
Along with the achievements, the negative aspects of the "green revolution" gradually began to appear. Some of them were associated with the destruction of ecosystems that have developed over thousands of years, the erosion of fertile soil, the negative consequences of the rapid development of irrigated agriculture, as well as the disappearance of many plant and living organisms. But the main negative consequence was the appearance in the products of both crop production and animal husbandry of an increased content of chemical compounds, antibiotics, hormones, etc., which is extremely harmful to human health. In addition, it turned out that excessive enthusiasm for innovations in agricultural scientific and technical progress in some cases led to an unjustified rise in the cost of products: an excessive amount of energy was expended in the production process and subsequent sorting, processing, storage and transportation of food, and by the time it reached the consumer, it turned out that 5-7 calories of fuel and energy are spent on the production of one calorie of food.
These and some other undesirable consequences of the "Green Revolution" and the increased sensitivity of new varieties of agricultural crops and livestock breeds to pests and diseases (for example, potatoes to the Colorado potato beetle, or periodically occurring epizootics such as foot-and-mouth disease, "mad cow disease", bird flu, etc. ., leading to the mass destruction of a huge number of animals and birds) formed a critical attitude towards modern agricultural production among a part of society. At the same time, new directions in agriculture appeared and began to develop.
15.3. The latest trends in agriculture
In the 90s of the XX century. two new directions in modern agricultural production are developing, although the prerequisites for their emergence were formed earlier. One of them was due to the expansion of demand for environmentally friendly products, i.e. produced without the use of chemicals, hormones, antibiotics, growth stimulants, etc. funds created as a result of the rapid development of scientific and technological progress. In essence, this was to a large extent a return to the former agriculture, but on a new qualitative basis, with the use of modern agricultural technologies, new varieties of crops and livestock breeds. The production of such products was carried out earlier, but on a small scale. With the chemicalization of agriculture and the growth in the use of medicines, vaccines and other drugs, a negative attitude began to grow in society towards products in which undesirable components were found. This finally took shape in the 1990s, when the demand for pure bioproducts became massive. Accordingly, the production of organic, as it began to be called, products began to receive state support and regulation in the countries of Western Europe, North America and in Japan.
At the same time, national and international organizations of consumers of such products, as well as scientific centers engaged in the study of various problems associated with organic agricultural technologies, began to be created. Gradually, work was being established to determine the requirements for the quality of bioproducts, their certification, methods of their production, etc. Thus, in 1999, the list of permitted and prohibited substances and agents developed by the Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC) was agreed upon and adopted. The activities of the international non-governmental organization International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movement (IFOAM) are also widely known.
Organic agricultural production has higher labor costs than modern one. Yields and productivity are lower, which leads to significantly higher prices for organic products. Therefore, the demand for such products is expanding mainly in the richest countries. According to 2000 data, 11 thousand farms with a total area of 3 million hectares were engaged in organic agro-production in Europe, i.e. 1.8% agricultural area. Sales volume may in the near future amount to 5 to 10% of the European market. The growth rates of production and sales are very high: from 5-10% in Germany to 30-^0% in Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland.
The most strongly developed production and consumption of organic products in Europe is in Switzerland, Italy, Germany, England, Austria, France, the Scandinavian countries and the Czech Republic. The volume of retail trade in bioproducts in 2000 in Europe amounted to 20 billion dollars, but its share in total food sales is still small and in most countries ranges from 1 to 4%. The highest share of such sales is in Switzerland (4%) and Denmark (4.5%). Italy, Spain and Greece are mainly focused on the development of bioproduct exports. In the USA, Canada and Mexico, the production of organic products in 2000 was estimated at 10-12 billion dollars. It is developing very well in Australia, where the area under them has reached 1.7 million hectares, and in Asia, with the exception of Japan, it is still poorly developed.
The governments of a number of countries provide support to farmers switching to organic production, up to direct subsidies. Part of the funds for these purposes comes from EU funds. The amount of subsidies depends on the type of activity. For example, in Austria they range from 218 euros per hectare for pastures, 327 euros for arable land to 727 euros for land under vineyards and vegetables. Active state support for biofarmers, who will, of course, produce less products, is largely due to the fact that developed countries have long solved the problem of ensuring their food security.
The production of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is the second, rapidly developing in recent years, a new direction in modern agriculture. It was the result of the successful development at the end of the last century of "genetic engineering", which allows, by transplanting individual genes (plants, fish, molluscs, animals, and even humans) into the genome of plants or animals, to obtain new organisms with predetermined properties. For the first time, transgenic products were produced in 1983, when pest-resistant tobacco was obtained in the USA. Later, genetically modified tomatoes, soybeans, corn, cucumbers, cotton, rapeseed, potatoes, flax, gourds were obtained. papaya, etc. GMOs first entered the open market in 1994, when GM tomatoes began to be sold in the United States, capable of being stored for a long time under normal conditions.
In the last 10 years, the pace of distribution of transgenic products has been exceptionally high. The area under plantings of modified crops increased 34 times over the seven years of commercial implementation and in 2002 amounted to 58.7 million hectares. The leading countries producing GMOs in 2002 were the USA, Argentina, Canada and China. They accounted for 99% of the world's GMO production. In recent years, they have been produced in increasing volumes in Australia, South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and in a large number of developing countries.
Basically, GMOs receive such new properties as resistance to herbicides, viruses, insects, as well as improving quality characteristics, preventing spoilage during storage and transportation, creating food products with predetermined properties, etc. They enter the market, including foreign trade, either in their natural form (fruits, vegetables, etc.), or in the form of various feeds and additives to manufactured products. So, they get into dairy and meat products as part of feed or ingredients (soy) in sausages. Genetically modified seeds are entering the world market in increasing quantities, the export of which in 2000 reached 3 billion dollars.
Attitude towards GMOs is ambiguous. In the US, Japan, developing countries, it is mostly positive. However, in Europe, from the very beginning to the present, there have been discussions about the possible undesirable consequences of the use of GMOs, both for people and for the environment. GMO production can somewhat reduce farmers' costs of pesticides, fertilizers, and increase yields through resistance to pests or adverse environmental conditions. But information about economic efficiency is scattered and contradictory. It is believed that the cultivation of GMOs can increase yields or reduce costs by 10-20%. But what the consequences may be, including for subsequent generations, is still unknown.
In recent years, many conferences, symposiums and other forums have taken place, where the problems of transgenesis have been discussed. For example, in 1993 the Convention on Biological Diversity was signed, but a number of important countries did not accede to it. As a follow-up to this Convention, in January 2000, the Cartagena Protocol on Biological Safety was approved by 130 countries, containing the main provisions regarding the possible impact of living modified organisms on the environment, but it has not yet entered into force, since the missing number of countries have ratified it.
In Europe, especially in the EU, there is strong opposition to the import and production of GMOs. In a number of countries, labeling on the content of GMOs in products is mandatory. Since July 2004, such labeling has been mandatory in Russia if the content of GMOs exceeds 0.9%.
Agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus, concept, composition, goals.
The main directions of development of agriculture for 2011-2015.
Literature:
No. 2 pp. 5-22; No. 4 pp. 6-9; No. 5 pp. 5-13.
State program of sustainable rural development for 2011-2015. , approved by the Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus dated 01.08.2011 No.
Question number 1. social division of labor.
The economy of the state is a single national economic complex, which includes various areas of activity involved in production of products (goods) , these are industry, agriculture, forestry, construction; service production , these are transport, communications, trade, public catering, etc. Their emergence and development occurred as a result of the social division of labor. The division of labor manifests itself in three forms: general, particular and singular , which differ in varying degrees of sectoral differentiation of the national economy.
As a result general division of labor such large spheres of social production as industry, agriculture, construction, etc.
As a result private division of social labor a there was a process of dismemberment of large spheres of social production into independent industries, sub-sectors and individual enterprises. At the same time, enlarged complex and specialized industries are distinguished. According to the current classification, there are: 12 complex industries in industry and in agriculture - 2 branches - crop production and animal husbandry. Enterprises are united into branches in accordance with the types of products produced and the technology of the production process.
industry called a set of enterprises or industries for which characterized by the unity of economic purpose manufactured products, homogeneity of production and technical bases s and technological processes (plant growing and animal husbandry), the specificity of the professional staff.
Single division of labor within industries, it causes the emergence of various working professions and specialties, such as tractor drivers, drivers, milkmaids, pigs, cattlemen, mechanics, agronomists, livestock specialists, etc.
Currently, in connection with the introduction into production innovative technologies, in-depth development receives a single division of labor, which causes the emergence of new professions and specialties within the existing industries (specialties in the maintenance of information technology, nanotechnology, operators in the maintenance of robotic equipment, etc.
Question number 2. Agriculture and its importance in the economy of the Republic of Belarus.
Agricultural enterprises are part of agriculture - the most important complex branch of the economy of the Republic of Belarus. Agriculture includes two branches - crop production and animal husbandry. As a rule, a typical agricultural enterprise has crop production(land + agricultural plants) and animal husbandry(farm animals + feed). The exceptions are greenhouse complexes, poultry farms, large livestock complexes.
The importance of agriculture is as follows:
1. It is a source of food for the population of the republic Therefore, its development is a priority compared to other sectors of the economy. No country can exist without agriculture. (Food imports to the Republic of Belarus - citrus fruits, melons, seafood, vegetable oil, etc.).
2. Developed agriculture preserves the food security of the state (at least 80% needs in food must be provided with domestic agricultural products, in fact, at present in the Republic of Belarus this is 95-96% ??? - why).
3. In agriculture a significant part of the country's GDP is created, in recent years about eight %. (in 2012 - 8.4%)
4. It is major consumer of industrial products (tractors, cars, combines (RUP Gomselmash - 19 thousand people), agricultural machines, fuels and lubricants, etc.), 80% of the material and technical resources of the village were created in industry. At the same time, more than 60% of agricultural products are processed by industry (KHP, dairy and meat plants, canning, flax mills, etc.).
5. Agriculture is an important area of application of labor, it directly employs about 9 % of the country's able-bodied population, and taking into account related industries (agricultural services, processing of agricultural products, agricultural engineering, etc.), it provides employment for about 30% of the able-bodied population. One workplace in agriculture gives jobs to 7 jobs in other sectors of the economy (about 100 thousand people are employed in the agricultural engineering industry).
6. Agriculture in the Republic of Belarus is an export industry, whose products are in constant demand foreign markets, especially Russian. In 2012 exported >45% of agricultural products for which the proceeds were received > 5 billion .USD.
7. The level of agricultural development has great impact on the environment (chemicals, livestock effluents, petroleum products, etc.).
8. Agriculture begins to act as important source renewable energy (potentially available biogas from manure animals - 1.28 million tons of standard fuel a, straw of agricultural crops - 1.46 million tons of standard fuel , which is able to cover about 7% of the total need of the Republic of Belarus in fuel and energy resources).
9. Agriculture through the ecological state of agricultural products directly affects the health of the population of the republic.
When carrying out agricultural production, it is necessary to take into account the importance of agriculture in the economy of the republic and the life of its population.
Question number 3. Features of agriculture as an industry.
Agriculture, as a complex industry, has many common features, but even more differences in comparison with other sectors of the economy.
Agriculture has the following features:
1. In agriculture main, indispensable factors of production act Earth, solar energy, water, whose influence on production is enormous and practically not limited by man.
2. Only in agriculture Plants create organic matter from inorganic those. there is an accumulation of new energy, in all other industries energy is only consumed.
3. In agriculture living organisms are direct factors of production: plants, animals, microorganisms, the biological laws of development of which must be taken into account and observed (example: twin wheels of tractors - why? ).
4. Agriculture conducted over large areas which complicates the process of production of agricultural products and requires high energy costs (in 2012, the village used fuel and lubricants in the amount of more than 1 billion USD.
5. In agriculture the period of performance of work does not coincide with the period of receipt of products (especially in crop production), which leads to seasonal production and seasonal use of labor, to a significant slowdown in the turnover of funds in the production of agricultural products.
6. More than 20% of gross agricultural output sent for further use within the industry (seeds, feed, productive livestock, etc.), i.e. Not all agricultural products are marketable.
The development of agriculture today occupies one of the leading positions in the economy. Even during the crisis of 2015, agriculture continued to successfully grow and develop. This is evidenced by the growing figures - 2.9% compared to 2014. Nevertheless, this article will focus not only on the prospects for the development of agriculture, but also on the problems associated with this sector of the economy.
The current state and prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia
Despite the fact that the development of agriculture in the 1990s. cannot boast of great achievements, in the 2000s. the situation has changed radically since the successful policy in this area was resumed. This is due to state support and the introduction of a system of agricultural insurance and lending, which led to an improvement in the prospects for the development of agriculture.
2015 not only brought agriculture back to its feet, but also became an indicator of a successful state policy, the results of which exceeded expectations: the agricultural productivity index in all categories amounted to 103%. In total, 104.8 million tons of grain were harvested, which is 5% higher than the expected outcome of the State Program for the Development of Agriculture. Poultry and cattle breeding reached 13.5 million tons, which is 4.2% more than in 2014. At the same time, egg production improved by 1.6%.
In 2014, agricultural products were imported in the amount of 39.9 billion dollars, in 2015 - by 26.5 billion. At the end of the year, imports of fresh and frozen meat decreased by 30%, fish - by 44%, and cheese and cottage cheese - by 36.5%. Basically, agricultural products were imported from non-CIS countries and the CIS.
Also in 2015, indicators of agricultural exports increased due to the improvement in the prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia. Thus, the export of pork and poultry increased by 20%. Export indicators of sunflower oil and wheat improved. Again, cooperation went on, for the most part, with far-abroad countries and the CIS.
Today, the prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia continue to grow. In this regard, exports are supported by the institutions EXIAR, ROSEXIMBANK, Russian Export Center, etc. At the end of 2016, the most popular exported agricultural products were:
- pork and poultry meat;
- grain (wheat and barley);
- fresh and frozen fish, seafood;
- vegetable oil of different categories.
The main trend in the development of agriculture in Russia is the modernization of agricultural equipment. Due to the devaluation of the ruble and higher prices for imported equipment, by the end of 2017, a slight decrease in the pace of modernization is expected. State support in the form of subsidies for the production of agricultural products is an equally important prospect for the development of agriculture in Russia. At the same time, greenhouse vegetable growing, pig breeding, development of the parent stock, seed production, etc. will be involved.
State payments also attract very large investors to the agricultural market, who can also help in the development of agriculture. But even in the process of subsidizing, a lot of new problems have arisen, one of which is the uneven distribution of funds. So, for example, a sufficient number of subsidies are allocated for the development of the livestock sector, but payments for fodder production are insignificant, which causes an imbalance. Agricultural producers also complain about the lack of funds for the modernization and reconstruction of storage facilities and greenhouses.
The issuance of loans by the state for the development of agriculture is also growing. Thus, in 2015, the state allocated 263 billion rubles for the development of agricultural production. By May 2016, this amount of loans had doubled compared to May 2015.
However, official statistics do not give a complete picture of the prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia. In fact, there are a lot of unresolved issues. Lending services concern only large agro-industrial complexes, while small agricultural lands suffer from a lack of financial resources due to a highly developed system of bureaucratization and other problems. In order to receive state support, small agricultural enterprises need to collect a lot of certificates, conduct a huge number of examinations, and face hidden conditions that are not mentioned in official documents.
Despite the mass of unresolved problems concerning the prospects for the development of agriculture, this industry The economy of the state continues to develop successfully. Production figures are on the rise. However, in 2017, there is a high probability of a strong difference between supply and demand. In almost every market area in 2017, there is a drop in demand due to the unstable financial situation in the country. This fact may adversely affect the prospects for the development of agriculture and not only.
Problems and prospects of agriculture in the world
Before proceeding to the consideration of the problems and prospects of agriculture in the world, we will analyze its general characteristics at this stage of market relations between countries.
Scientific achievements (selection, development of new hybrid varieties cereals) in agricultural development are improving agricultural productivity in many countries. This fact was facilitated by the so-called "green revolution": the massive use of fertilizers, an increase in the scale of irrigation work, increased mechanization, etc. However, this affected only a small part of the countries that participated in the "green revolution".
The main reason for the difficulties that have arisen in the field of agricultural development lies in the backwardness of their agrarian relations. For example, in Latin America, the so-called latifundia, which are huge agricultural estates, are widely developed. And in Asia and Africa, in addition to large agricultural areas of local and foreign capital, feudal and semi-feudal possessions are still popular. The development of agriculture in these countries is hampered by the vestiges of the past associated with communal land ownership.
The motley and backward nature of agrarian relations is combined with survivals in the sphere of social organization, as well as the presence of active tribal and intertribal relations, the huge popularity of animism and faith of a different nature. When considering the prospects for the development of agriculture, it is important to pay attention to the socio-psychological aspects of the people, which include the consumer mentality. Among other things, the history of local peoples who had colonies in the past also has a huge impact.
All things considered, the agriculture of many developing countries cannot meet their food needs. In this regard, today there are a huge number of people living in these territories and suffering from hunger.
Even though hunger is gradually eradicated, the number of people in need of food is still huge, reaching the 1 billion mark. Every year, about 20 million people die from lack of food in developing countries. And this is another problem of agricultural development.
The prospects for the development of agriculture in a number of developing countries are also unsatisfactory because many traditional dishes have a low calorie content and an acute shortage of proteins and fats. This fact negatively affects the physical endurance of people living in the countries of South and East Asia.
The difficult situation with the development of agriculture and difficulties in providing food determine the problem of food security for many developing countries. We are talking about getting enough food, which is important for ensuring the normal functioning of a person. UN FAO specialists have set a food security threshold, which is 17% of the world's consumption of stocks of the last harvest, which is 2 months of food supply.
At the same time, UN experts found that in most of the developing countries there are a huge number of people suffering from a lack of vital resources, which also became a consequence of the problems of agricultural development. Food insecurity was observed in 24 countries at once, with 22 states located in Africa. In connection with the emerging critical living conditions, a number of measures were taken to eliminate food problems. We are talking about food aid: donation and provision of resources on preferential terms of credit.
Food donations are made, for the most part, in relation to the states of Africa, Asia and Latin America. The first place in the supply is occupied by the United States. In recent years, the role of the EU states, which donate food to the countries of Asia and Africa, has been strengthened.
Prospects for the development of agriculture at the international level
Above, we talked about the fact that much more food is being produced today compared to previous years. However, the number of hungry people still leaves much to be desired. The population is busy with the problem of developing agriculture for the benefit of providing food to all those in need. So, for example, if we pay attention to the volume of food in the United States, we can conclude that by 2030 there will be enough food supplies for only 2.5 billion people, although the population of the planet at that time will be approximately 8.9 billion. food at the beginning of the 21st century, it turns out that by 2030 we will fall to the level of India, which is 450 g of grain per person daily. In turn, this problem of agricultural development will cause numerous wars.
Under no circumstances should the process of agricultural development be left to chance through production, consumption and redistribution. It is important to develop a plan for the prospects for the development of agriculture at the international level. In this case, you can rely on 4 directions.
1. Expansion of the land fund
Today, approximately 0.34 hectares of land per 1 person is allocated for agricultural land. In theory, the area can expand significantly to 4.69 hectares per person. Given this fact, you involuntarily think about the problems of agricultural development in the world, because the planet's land reserve allows you to expand the plots. However, it is worth considering the fact that not every soil is suitable for the development of agriculture. In addition, to expand the farm holdings, you will need a huge amount of money.
2. Improving the efficiency of agricultural production
Ultimately, it is this option that gains the most weight: improving the financial stability of the economy by increasing the efficiency of agricultural production. Experts in the field of agricultural development considered that with the use of the latest technologies in the agricultural sector at the present stage, at least 12 billion people could be easily provided with food. In addition, technological progress does not stand still and continues to develop even now. Therefore, the prospects for the development of agriculture would constantly grow for the better, and not only due to biotechnology, but also thanks to the successes of geneticists.
3. Social empowerment
However, the real way to improve the prospects for the development of agriculture follows from the consideration of the social opportunities of citizens. This is another direction of the strategic plan for the development of agriculture. The goal at this stage is the implementation of global agricultural reforms in developing countries, based on the characteristics of each country. The result should be the overcoming of the backwardness of the existing agrarian structures. During reforms, it is important to pay attention Special attention on such problems of agricultural development in developing countries as troubleshooting due to the widespread participation of primitive communal relations in many African states, latifundism in Latin America and the spread of fragmented small-peasant holdings in Asia.
During agricultural reforms, it is best to rely on the already existing experience of developed countries. For example, to increase the role of the government in the development of agriculture through the issuance of subsidies for the replacement of old equipment with new ones, as well as in the field of financial support for small and medium-sized agricultural businesses. It is important to give a special place to the solution of issues related to voluntary cooperation, an abundance of forms and financial incentives for players.
The next task of carrying out social reform with the growth financial efficiency is to reduce the gap at the consumer level between different groups of states.
Undoubtedly, the improvement of government activity also applies to the reproduction zone, whose rise can be more controlled with the use of effective means.
4. International cooperation
In the end, the fourth stage of the strategic plan to improve the prospects for agricultural development may well be international cooperation, as well as assistance from developed countries to developing ones. The mission of such a project is, firstly, to overcome food shortages, and secondly, to identify the internal potential of developing countries. To reveal the entire hidden reserve, it is necessary to solve problems in all directions: the economy, education, health care, etc.
Prospects for the development of agriculture in the world in the long term
The OECD and FAO are engaged in assessing the prospects for the development of agriculture in the world. Their forecasts are calculated for 10 years ahead. Thus, one can learn about the development of agriculture in the world in the long term, but only taking into account the modern agricultural industry.
According to the analyzed data, it was possible to establish several ways for the development of agriculture in the world economy at once. 4 hypotheses became prerequisites.
- The sown area under the main agricultural crops (wheat, corn, rice) will not decrease, but will even increase. Food crisis 2007-2009 made it possible to draw this conclusion. If a number of measures are not taken, then we are threatened with a repeated crisis phenomenon of the past years.
- In all countries, more and more resources will be spent on the introduction of the achievements of scientific and technological progress in agriculture. This fact will positively affect the use of the benefits of nature. We are talking primarily about water and land resources.
- Developing countries in many regions will increase their protein intake at the expense of meat and dairy products. Hence the popularization of growing plants for the purpose of their further use for animal feed.
- In most countries, the trend will continue to use agricultural resources primarily for food purposes. States with special natural and political conditions, allowing competent use of the benefits of the earth for the creation of biofuels, will remain on the sidelines. We are talking about the United States, Brazil, as well as some states of Southeast Asia.
According to forecasts for 2020, wheat production will improve significantly - up to 806 million tons, which will be an increase of 18% by 2008, by 2050 the wheat harvest will reach 950 million tons (an increase of 40% compared to 2008) . However, do not forget that the population of the planet is constantly growing and by this time will increase by 30-35%. Hence the improvement in the per capita supply of wheat.
Since wheat is actively used in animal husbandry, in developing countries, an increase in imports of these grains from 24-26% to 30% is possible. Moreover, faster growth rates are expected in less developed countries. This prospect of agricultural development in less developed countries guarantees a reduction in the share of imports from 60% to 50%. But even this indicator cannot be considered successful. In any case, the help of developed countries will be needed so that less developed countries can rise to a higher level in agricultural production.
There are also reports on forecasts of prospects for the development of agriculture in the meat and dairy industries. It turned out that the pace of milk production is developing much faster than the population of the planet is increasing. This may lead to the fact that by 2050 the volume of milk produced will be 1222 million tons, which is 80% more than in 2008.
It is developing countries that play a huge role in this process, since, based on the forecasts received, milk production in these countries will increase by 2.25 times. But even these data cannot hide the fact that the difference in the volume of milk produced in developing and developed countries will be huge. There is a possibility of a decrease in the number of cows in a number of developing countries with their increased productivity. Such a step will help to get rid of two problems of agricultural development at once: to increase the production of plant products and to increase the amount of milk protein in the food menu of the poor part of the population.
However, the problem of the development of agriculture in the meat industry still remains unresolved, because the nutrition of the world's population largely depends on it.
According to forecast data, improvements are expected in the meat industry by 2050: the production and consumption of beef will increase by 60%, pork - by 77%, poultry meat - by 2.15 times. At the same time, the difference between the growth rates of the meat industry and the demographic situation on the planet will again remain. If developing countries begin to promote their own meat product in the domestic market, they will be able to increase efficiency in this area of agricultural development. In less developed countries, it should be expected that most of the beef and pork will be obtained by the population through domestic production, but 40% of poultry meat will be satisfied by imports.
Thus, based on the above data, we can conclude that by improving the efficiency of agricultural production with the replacement of old equipment with innovative technologies that can significantly save resources, it is quite possible to improve the prospects for the development of agriculture in the world with a program for 40 years. It remains to solve one more problem of the development of agriculture in the world, connected with hunger.
When forecasting food consumption, the calculation is carried out per capita of the planet and is constantly growing. But over time, growth will decrease significantly. Between 1970 and 2000 there was an increase in food consumption per capita per day of 16%. Estimated data for the period from 2001 to 2030. food costs will increase to 2950 kcal. However, this is only a 9% increase over 30 years.
By 2050, consumption is expected to increase to 3130 kcal per capita, and the increase will be 3% over 20 years. These data take into account the fact that food consumption in developing countries will grow much faster than in developed countries. In this regard, there is a high probability of equalizing the indicators of food consumption in developed and developing countries, which also improves the prospects for the development of agriculture at the global level.
Today, only half of the world's population can afford good nutrition. Literally 30 years ago, the situation was different: only 4% were included in the circle of “fully secured”. By 2050, about 90% of the world's population will freely receive 2,700 kilocalories per capita per day.
All these achievements make up the prospects for the development of agriculture in the world in the long term and depend on a number of innovative changes in the agricultural sector of the economy.
Prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia
1. Import substitution in agriculture
Import substitution today helps to solve a lot of problems in the development of agriculture in Russia. It's no secret that in 2014 Russia fell under the "distribution" of sanctions by European countries, USA, Canada, Australia and Japan. As a result, the Government of the Russian Federation has taken a number of measures, banning the import of a certain list of food products, for the most part we are talking about agricultural products.
Thanks to import substitution in modern stores in the Russian Federation, 80% of food is a domestic product and only 20% is foreign. Work is underway to develop domestic agriculture. By the end of 2017, a significant increase in grain crops is expected (over 100 million tons). The buckwheat harvest will also exceed expectations. However, special attention should be paid to the meat, dairy and vegetable industries. Prospects for the development of agriculture in these sectors provide forecasts for achieving the expected increase in 2-3 years, and only in the dairy sector - in 7-10 years. Already in 3-5 years, a complete transition to domestic trade in vegetables and fruits is expected.
2. Increasing the role of the state in the development of agriculture in Russia
Over the past decade, the prospects for agriculture in Russia have improved significantly, thanks to the growing role of the government in this sector of the economy. The agrarian reform of the State Program fixes the popularization of the state's actions to develop agriculture in the country:
- Providing financial support for the agricultural industry with the participation of the regions.
- Distribution and redistribution of income received.
- Issuance of loans for agricultural needs within the framework of state support.
- Agricultural insurance.
Producers of the agricultural industry, thus, can receive more than thirty types of state support. The main emphasis is on subsidizing part of the interest on lending for the long term, as well as providing per hectare assistance.
Among other things, the Government of the Russian Federation has developed a number of innovations for the development of agriculture for novice farmers: a grant for the creation of farmland, which includes 1.5 million rubles and 300 thousand rubles for household equipment, as well as the issuance of subsidies for investment loans and part of the down payment leasing of agricultural machinery.
Many banks, such as Rosselkhozbank, are also actively involved in supporting the development of agriculture in the country by developing new lines of financial products. If you are the owner of a small or medium business, you can apply for an annual loan at a reduced rate - from 15.95%. At the same time, the loan portfolio of Rosselkhozbank in the period from 2014 to 2015 jumped by 13.2% and is now more than 1.5 million rubles.
The prospects for the development of agriculture in the Russian Federation depend mainly on loans. At the present stage, the problem of lack of investment in the long term remains unresolved.
3. Attracting investments
As we mentioned above, the problem of attracting investment in the development of agriculture is the main one at the present stage of the work of the agro-industrial complex. Since the majority of agricultural enterprises have a low level of income, there are very, very few people who want to invest in the development of agriculture in the Russian Federation. However, attracting investments can be positively affected by the fact of subsidizing export enterprises and industries such as pig breeding, greenhouse vegetable growing, and seed production.
2017, according to experts, will be favorable for investing in dairy products (in particular cheese), pork, poultry, and fish. However, do not forget about the risks of financial investments.
The Government of the Russian Federation manages to attract investors to the development of agriculture through a number of active measures. For example, 20% of the amount spent on capital construction is returned to the investor. Thus, investors in the vegetable growing industry will be able to return their 20% this year. In 2017, it is planned to allocate a sum of money in the amount of 16 billion rubles for the implementation of this idea.
The average payback period for investments in the development of agriculture in Russia is 5 years.
4. Development of own scientific base and technological effectiveness of the industry
Perhaps one of the fundamental factors for improving the prospects for the development of agriculture in the country is the provision of the agro-industrial complex with highly qualified specialists. In this regard, the state is trying to actively support agricultural universities. To date, 54 agricultural universities are engaged in the education of specialists in the field of the agricultural industry on the territory of the Russian Federation. Every year they produce 25 thousand finished frames.
At the present stage of development of agriculture in the country, the identification of the necessary innovations in the agricultural sector is analyzed: experiments in the field of breeding and genetic engineering. Also, absolutely new species of flora and fauna are being created, which have better viability and productive qualities.
Do not forget about the development of feed production and veterinary industries.
5. Development of farming
According to statistics, 355 thousand agricultural producers work in the Russian Federation, most consisting of individual entrepreneurs and small organizations. The Association of Peasant (Farmer) Farms and Agricultural Cooperatives of Russia found that 38% of the entire rural population is very interested in the development of farming.
The question arises: is it possible for farmers to appear in our country? Of course available. And there is strong evidence for this. So, for example, the Oryol region is at the present stage of development of agriculture the most popular in this area: 90% of the land is allocated for the agro-industrial complex. At the same time, more than 300 thousand people live in villages, which is 40% of the total population of the Oryol region. Private farms- the main goal of the prospects for the development of agriculture in the country.
Practitioner tells
Tatyana Antipenko, editor-in-chief of the portal Agro.ru, Moscow
On July 1, 2017, the law prohibiting the cultivation and breeding of genetically modified plants and animals in our country comes into force. Exception: cases when it is done for scientific purposes.
As early as January 1, 2016, a new GOST came into force - “Products of organic production. Rules of production, storage, transportation. In addition, a new unified food labeling standard has emerged. This will change the perception of the population about the quality of domestic products for the better.
There is already a craving for Russian products; this can be considered one of the manifestations of the growth of patriotic sentiments. The desire to eat healthy food is gaining popularity. The growing demand is supported by the opening online stores of farm products. However, for such short term consumers are unlikely to change their minds about local producers.
Distrust of inspection systems is firmly planted in the minds of Russians. In addition, we do not have a clear understanding of the difference between organic products, the quality of which is confirmed by a certificate, and farmer's. Agricultural producers have to carry out serious propaganda work to convince buyers that Russian products are not inferior in quality to imported ones.
Chapter 2. The main trends in the development of agriculture in the world economy
2.1 Problems of agricultural development
First of all, it is necessary to characterize the common features inherent in the present stage of development of agriculture in developing countries.
Scientific selection, the creation of high-yielding hybrid varieties of cereals have led to an increase in agricultural production in a number of developing countries. Other factors of the "Green Revolution" also contributed to this (a certain increase in the use of fertilizers, the expansion of irrigation works, an increase in mechanization, an increase in the qualifications of a part of the employed labor force, etc.). But they covered only a small part of the territory of the states participating in the "green revolution".
The main reason for the difficulties of these countries in the development of agriculture lies in the backwardness of their agrarian relations. Thus, a number of Latin American states are characterized by latifundia - extensive private land holdings that form the basis of landowner-type farms. In most countries of Asia and Africa, along with large farms owned by local and foreign capital, farms of the feudal and semi-feudal type are widespread, in a number of countries even with remnants of tribal relations. Communal landownership, which has its roots in ancient times, deserves special mention in this regard.
The motley and backward character of agrarian relations is combined with survivals in the sphere of social organization, the enormous influence of the institution of tribal and intertribal leaders, the wide spread of animism and various other beliefs. It is necessary to take into account many socio-psychological characteristics of the local population, in particular, the widespread consumerist, unproductive mentality. Remnants of the colonial past of many of these states are also having an effect.
The peculiarities of the agrarian system and other factors have led to the fact that the agriculture of many developing countries cannot satisfy their food needs. To date, the proportion of the population that does not receive the necessary nutrition remains very large.
Although the absolute and relative number of people suffering from malnutrition has declined, the total number of undernourished people remains enormous. According to various estimates, their number in the world is about 1 billion people. 20 million people die every year from malnutrition alone in developing countries.
Traditional diets in a number of countries do not contain enough calories, often do not have the required amount of proteins and fats. Their shortage affects people's health and the quality of the workforce. These trends are especially acute in the countries of South and East Asia.
The difficult situation with the development of agriculture and difficulties in providing food determine the problem of food security for many developing countries. The latter refers to the constant consumption of a sufficient amount of food to support the active life of people. The experts of the UN specialized organization FAO consider the world stocks from the last harvest equal to 17% of world consumption or sufficient to meet the needs for about two months as the minimum level for ensuring food security.
Calculations by UN experts have shown that a significant part of developing countries have a very low self-sufficiency ratio. 24 states had a very low level of food security, 22 of them were African. The aggravation of the situation in a number of developing countries has necessitated the adoption of measures aimed at alleviating the food problem. An important tool for reducing the problem of hunger was food aid, that is, the transfer of resources on the terms of soft loans or in the form of gratuitous gifts.
The main food aid supplies go to the least developed countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The main supplier is the USA. In recent years, the role of the EU countries has been growing, especially in relation to the least developed African and Asian states.
2.2 Agricultural development trends
The data discussed above testify to the great achievements of world agriculture and, at the same time, to the considerable difficulties and contradictions in its modern development. According to the calculations of Russian specialists, agricultural production in the world increased from $415 billion in 1900 to $580 billion in 1929, $645 billion in 1938, $760 billion in 1950, and $2475 billion in 2000. The hierarchy of agricultural producers among developed countries in 2000 looked as follows: the United States was in first place with a volume of agricultural production of 175 billion dollars, France was second - 76.5, Italy was third - 56.0, fourth - Germany - 52.5 billion dollars.
Although the world now produces more food than ever before, approximately 1 billion people, as already noted, are constantly hungry.
Mankind is looking for an optimal solution to the food problem. If we focus on the current level of nutrition of a US resident, then in 2030 there will be enough food resources for only 2.5 billion people, and the world's population by this time will be; amount to approximately 8.9 billion. And if we take the average consumption rates of the beginning of the 21st century, then by this time the modern level of India will be reached (450 g of grain per day per person). The redistribution of food resources can escalate into political conflicts.
Economists rightly consider unacceptable the spontaneity of the development of relations in the sphere of production, consumption and redistribution of food. Concerted action and the development of an international development strategy are needed. It contains four main areas.
The first is the expansion of the land fund. At the present stage, mankind effectively uses an average of about 0.34 hectares of arable land per person. But there are considerable reserves, and theoretically, one earthling has 4.69 hectares of land. Due to this reserve, the areas used in agriculture can actually be increased. But, firstly, the reserves are still limited, and secondly, part of the earth's surface is difficult to use or simply unsuitable for agricultural processing. And besides, for the operation to increase the area will require a lot of money.
As a result, the second direction is becoming much more important - increasing economic opportunities by increasing the efficiency of agricultural production. Scientists have calculated that if advanced technologies were used on all the areas now used, then at the present time agriculture could feed at least 12 billion people. But the reserves of efficiency achieved could continue to increase, in particular through the use of various biotechnologies and further progress in the development of genetics.
But a real way to increase economic efficiency can become only if social opportunities are expanded. This is the third direction of the development strategy, the main task of which is to carry out deep and consistent agrarian reforms in developing countries, taking into account the specific conditions in each of them. The purpose of the reforms is to overcome the backwardness of the existing agrarian structures. At the same time, special attention must be paid to the elimination of the negative consequences associated with the wide spread of primitive communal relations in a number of African countries, latifundism in Latin American countries, and the fragmentation of small peasant farms in Asian states.
When carrying out agrarian reforms, it is advisable to widely use the positive experience gained in developed countries, in particular, to improve the role of the state in the development of agriculture, especially by subsidizing the use of the latest technologies, various support for small and medium-sized farms, etc. The problem of cooperation deserves great attention, while ensuring its voluntary character, variety of forms and financial incentives for participants.
One of the objectives of social reforms, combined with measures to improve economic efficiency, is to reduce the consumption gap between different groups of countries.
Obviously, the improvement of state activity also affects the sphere of population reproduction, the growth of which can be more regulated using a variety of means.
And, finally, the fourth direction could be international cooperation and assistance from developed countries to the least developed. The purpose of this cooperation is not only to solve the most acute problems of food shortages, but also to stimulate the internal capabilities of developing states. And for this they need comprehensive assistance in developing not only the economy, but also education, healthcare, various branches of science and culture.
Chapter 3. Opportunities and priorities for the development of world agriculture
3.1 Prospects for the development of agriculture in the world
Looking to the future, we want to understand: is humanity threatened - in the near or distant future - by mass starvation, if one billion people are already suffering from it, according to the UN? Will agriculture have enough land, water and other natural resources to meet the food needs of every inhabitant of the planet at a level of at least 2,700 kcal per day? Can agricultural innovation withstand dangerous climate change and the vagaries of nature? Finally, what kind of agricultural policy should the world community and each country develop in order to ensure highly efficient, sustainable agriculture?
Long-range forecast calculations, jointly developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and FAO, provide estimates of markets for basic agricultural products 10 years into the future. If we accept as a hypothesis that in the longer term the same trends and the degree of influence of various factors on each other will continue, then it is possible to build a scenario for the development of the situation in world agriculture based on existing forecasts.
There are several options for forecasting the development of world and Russian agriculture for the period up to 2050. Four hypotheses were put forward as prerequisites for this forecast.
First. The sown area under the main agricultural crops (wheat, corn, rice) will not decrease, but will even increase. This is one of the main lessons that all countries must learn from the food crisis in 2007-2009. Otherwise, many countries and humanity as a whole doom themselves to the constant repetition of such crises.
Second. In all countries, more and more resources will be spent on the introduction of the achievements of scientific and technological progress in agriculture, which will increase the efficiency of the use of resources, primarily land and water.
Third. Developing countries in many regions will increase their protein intake at the expense of meat and dairy products. It follows from this that an increasing share of the grown plant resources will be used for fodder.
Fourth. In most countries, the trend will continue to use agricultural resources primarily for food purposes. The only exceptions will be those countries where there are special natural and political conditions that allow them to efficiently use land resources for the production of biofuels. These countries include, first of all, the United States (ethanol from corn), Brazil (ethanol from sugar cane) and, in the future, a number of countries in Southeast Asia that will be able to master the efficient production of biodiesel from palm oil.
What and how much humanity will eat. Wheat production is projected at 806 million tons by 2020 (an increase of 18% compared to 2008), and in 2050 - 950 million tons (an increase of 40% compared to 2008). Over the same period, according to UN forecasts, The population will increase by about 30-35%. Consequently, the per capita supply of grain in the wheat segment may slightly increase.
In developing countries, an increase in the share of imports in total wheat consumption from 24-26% to 30% can be expected due to the increasing use of wheat in animal husbandry. The highest production growth rates are projected in the least developed countries (2.8 times in 2050 compared to 2008). Only in this case they will be able to reduce their dependence on imports from 60% to 50%. However, this level cannot be considered normal. Certain actions are needed on the part of developed countries that could help increase wheat production directly in this group of states.